Monday, 9 May 2011

Post GE 2011 Comments & Impact on Property Market.

I had withheld several  angry and sensitive comments to my postings in this Blog before and on Cooling-Off  Day and GE Day but think it might be OK to post some of them now, since the GE is already over and the results known.

And now for my own post-GE comments.

My own earlier predictations of the GE results were actually reflected in my "red" posting "Come 8 May 2011 ..... ?" on 5 May 2011, just before Cooling-Off Day. You may recall I had posted the following statement :-

(1) Will a more intelligent Electorate relinquish its hold on the steering wheel of the GRC System and let the "driver" takes you where he wants or will the passengers "slap" the driver who refuses to take a "co-driver" when the road ahead looks more enduring, if not treacherous?

I had expected the Fall of Aljunied GRC to WP as a forgone conclusion. If you had read my following postings "Election Watch Part XIII - Five Years to Ruminate and To Regret or A Climate of Fear for PAP to face Aljunied GRC voters" and "If George Yeo goes, it’s the PAP’s fault " ...

Although I had expected a little bit more than that, using Low Thia Kiang's original analogy is apt and just the WP's defeat of the PAP team in Aljunied GRC alone was enough to give the "slap" required to support my earlier thesis statement. I see it deemed fit for a re-think on our GRC System.

(2) Will homes in Hougang and Aljunied GRC get cheaper and even more affordable or will high home prices all over Singapore suddenly become "affordable" overnight for all Singaporean voters to swallow, ruminate and regret for another 5 more years?

This issue is much more interesting. What was I watching the early morning of 8 May 2011, other than the testimony of my thesis statement in (1) above? Nothing much, except would MBT had fallen like George Yeo did. If that had happened, the implications on the property market might be much wider. My own predictions for Potong Pasir, Holland-Bt Timah and other minor SMCs were just side-liners.

Now that MBT had retained his seat due to NSP's lack of strategic focus in fighting a GE, and that MBT would probably be back at MND, our thesis statement above should suffice.

Honestly, if you ask me if homes in Hougang and Aljunied GRC would simply fall in value overnight or over the next 5 years, I would not be pessimistic at all. You might have read my re-posting of the link Hougang resident angered by Eric Low’s “slum” remark. For those who have no understanding of the construction and developement business, you might feel threatened. But don't forget Low Thia Kiang's background as a "contractor" and having managed and retained his Hougang site all these years. At most, we might only expect an interim handing-over problem at Aljunied HRC and possible rude "sabotage" which Low Thia Kiang had mentioned on "Victory" Day.

For many working in the construction indutsry, there are much more "interesting" adverse tales to share than the "Protem Committee for Privatisation of HUDC Flats". Imagine mass market condo prices (99 LH prices) or even EC prices were already pushed beyond $800 psf in the North-East.....Carrots are "nothing" complex if there are public or private funds.

At most "Big Carrots" may not be planted by the PAP Govt within Hougang and Aljunied GRC by controlling funds but do you think MBT would stop milking the "land sale cash cow" and stop private developers within Hougang and Aljunied GRC  if  he is re-appointed back in MND?

But does it make any real difference from say Holland - Bt Timah GRC or even a more middle-class Joo Chiat SMC where "Big Carrots" are also not likely to be built other than the MRT projects which must go on especially in the context of the "present slap" by the "co-pilot" on the PAP. Such factors are already factored in the current ridiculous high property prices.

At the lower end, what will happen to HDB resale prices, not forgetting they are only leasehold flats. Can every other ordinary HDB estate take the privatisation route like Hougang N3 HUDC (Hougang Ave 7) Privatisation ? Obviously not, so must SERs go on? But are they affordable?

Obviously, the HUDC residents at Hougang were anxious to cash-out from the Privatisation exercise as each unit is expected to fetch $1.5 million. As for SERs, just look at the high prices for new units. I believe the next step of the political game for the PAP and MBT will be to put up the political argument post 2011 GE to advocate that propping up the high HDB prices (or valuation) would be necessary to allow future "cashing out" whether it is through selling back to HDB or the open market, starting with the 1960 generation of baby-boomers who has started to hit age 50 and will be 55 y.o. by the next Election in 2015 or 2016. Otherwise, the PAP must solve income stagnation and grow their CPF. If you recall what I said before, this is the "guinea pig" generation and the PAP had been buying time for the past 10 years and perhaps another 5 more years now, if the PAP still has no solution.

With MBT now returned and probably to be the MND Minister again,  a "zero-sum" scenario is now as described by this letter writer to TODAY - May 9, 2011, "Asset values are not everything" - Teo Chin Ghee Jeremy. Hence, will the above "guninea pig" scenario become reality very soon and inflate the property bubble further? After all, MBT had announced he would "up" the income ceiling to $10K for eligibility to buy HDB BTO flats. That is just going to pump more air into his "Balloon"..... what about unkown other unknown policies to be crafted.

A regular visitor to this Blog, James Neo; had asked me "Is your forecast still for a 2012 bust?". You may recall I had wrote about a possible bust of the property bubble in 2012~2013. For those who are keen, I will be following up with postings on a new series, on the topic "The Property Bubble & Investment Trap - Post 2011 GE". Meanwhile, you may want to visit this Blog, who is faster than me to mention about a 2012 property bubble burst again. - "It's Safer In The Matrix - Singapore Notes".

I note there were comments to my earlier postings on "Minister Mah had not address Profits for BTO Flats and the "Ballooning" Land Costs" which I had withheld due to Cooling-Off Period or Election Day. With due respect to the commenter, he had not seen through and appreciated my costs figures in true depth. I would be releasing and addressing those comments soon under "Comments" and probably do a further posting so that readers of my Blog will clearly understand the generic mechanics of the pricing mechanism to assess if current prices are actually too high and affordable and not to be simply taken for a ride on a "property agent" or "general layman" approach for granted. After all, there are property agents who also think like our PAP Ministers-to-be-sworn-in again, that they are very worthy of  Multi-million Dollar Salaries.

Has it 'suddenly become "affordable" overnight'   that you have to 'swallow, ruminate and regret for another 5 more years', if you are not in Hougang or Aljunied GRC? Do follow up if you are keen on the "The Property Bubble & Investment Trap", post GE 2011.

1 comment:

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