The Property Bubble & Investment Trap Part XII - Quick Sizing Up of Current Property Market

Occasionally, we must return to "history" in order to appreciate the present better, to see what is trendy and sensible. Yes, I am first referring to architecture and buildings. However, the same applies to property prices and the value of your "home". From Day 1, I had given you this "helicopter vision" about the Singapore Property Market with historical prices. Buildings and development projects just get me all "fired" up in "thinking" despite its tough working environment, which is why I am still able to find energy to continue working in my profession.

Video : Ming Architecture, Nanjing Fuzi Miao.

Likewise, you may have notice a revamp of my blog - it has  more vivid and colourful photos, mostly taken by me with my "idiot-proof" camera. I will soon go more "micro" on issues for shorter read. However, the "Property" theme remains difficult to do so. I like to present insightful information and a true opinion. Those who trust my views may really rely on it to chart their course of investment. Hence, it would be "difficult" not to analyse in detail and explain more. But it takes longer read and is equally "straining" to write.

It makes sense to do a quick "sizing-up" of the property market especially when the General Election date is getting nearer. This means news are getting hotter, more "sensitive" and maybe even distorted. You can see a "star-burst" of news and must look deeper to piece everything together for a better decision. In pictures, I had illustrated what I mean, if you would look at the 2 analogous pictures in my first posting after my return from Nanjing. There must be at least 2 angles to look from.

The maxim is always "Watch what they do, not what they say." During the run-up to the Polling Date, you must follow the maxim twice, "cooling-off" period included. All these extra-ordinary "good" news would certainly put us in a "Golden Age" despite Episode 2 of MSK's Great Escape which Jack Neo should seriously consider as his comeback movie to join back the "Golden Age".

The previous Saturday (27 Nov), I was reading the ST in detail after a 4-week break, first on SITEX and then on Property. Instead of a focus on SITEX, I noted there were more advertisments on PROPERTY, a few developers took up full-page advertisments. As a professional working in this related industry, I hardly paid any attention to the beautiful perspectives and project details (I know where they are located and could imagine how they would look like upon TOP anyway). I was hunting for tell-tale signs which the ordinary readers and buyers might not be able to pick up. Most did not advertise "PRICE psf" despite a full page advertisement. Only 3 did and I will highlight them later on.

Not coincidentally, I had not been receiving those frequent SMS invitation to property launches for some time. Certainly not when I was in China and not the past week after I came back. The same with those postcard advertisments offering high-tea, BBQ party, etc.; when I emptied my mailbox after I came back. Great, are these developers getting more "green" just like their projects?

I had highlighted the following in my previous postings :-

(1) S$ Appreciation vs Fall in SINBOR to new low (Mid Oct 2010)

(2) Tharman mentioned "no capital controls"

(3) MAS's report warning about future interest rate hikes (Link : http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-25/singapore-says-low-borrowing-costs-excess-cash-may-spur-property-market.html )

A keen reader James Neo had commented and asked me for my further opinion on my prediction of a "bust" in 2012~2013 and a "boom" in 2015 for our property market. I had answered him under "Comments" in my posting "Back From Nanjing City, Jiangsu Province, China". I had addressed him sufficiently and do not wish to repeat in my posting again. You may visit the "Comments" for my views.

Coincidentally, there was this interesting advertisement by "Inflation US" - "The Day The Dollar Died". Though it is scenario building, an advestisement must still be convincing enough when directed at a mix of professionals as potential readers, and the date of the Bubble bust in this FICTIONAL account of QE4 was "December 19, 2012".

A few visitors had also emailed me to ask for personal advice or told me some personal investment stories. I thanked them for the interest in this Blog. While I would try my very best to share what I know and address some of their queries, I wish to clarify that NO 2 properties, investors or purchasers would have the same profile that they could be compared an "apple-to-apple" basis. Property investment is also a very personal matter. It is very difficult to give good advice without a clear understanding of the purchaser's investment profile and the category of property he is buying. Unless more information are volunteered, any advice from me would be general and for information only. I suggest that they follow my blog more closely and "fit" into the picture and pitch against their own observations, unless they wish to make specific query which must come with relevant information.

The purpose of this posting is a "quick-sizing" from where I left before my annual retreat. Let's look at some of these events for the past one month.

(4) MBT announced more land sales for H1 of 2011 in order to cool the market further (Nov 26, 2010). At the launch of Dawson, he reassured the property market has cooled with the same old data. If you had read my earlier postings, you would have known it from this blog even if you had not read the local newpapers. MBT has to do this, because the GE is getting nearer, and he should be more anxious now that he was not voted into the PAP CEC in the recent bi-annual party conference.

(5) Last Saturday (4 Dec), I watched the advertisments in ST again. There were a few large "PTY" advertisments and the only one that listed the "PRICE psf" was none other than the Canopy again.

(6) On Sunday night (5 Dec), I was watching Tung Soo Hua's Money Week. Earlier I had just heard PAP's Mrs Lim Hwee Hua tried to pin the blame for the high prices of HDB flats on "a few private owners who also owned HDB properties", on Channel 8 News, instead of admitting it as due to a myriad of factors, during a Kampong Chai Chee dialogue session. A "few" owners could not monopolise the whole market. She could have escaped the heat of argument by hinting that more measures would be taken.

Three prominent analysts were interviewed by Money Week regarding 4 EC sites to be released in H1 of 2011. It was shocking that these analysts predicted the sale prices for these future EC units to be between $900~$1,200 psf. I feel current prices for EC are already ridiculous and how could EC prices climb to set another record benchmark equivalent to current high prices of mid-range private condominiums. Who is setting and pushing this new benchmark? - The Analysts?  Developers? Or our Star Award winning Presenter of Money Week?

As I watched Money Week, the rolling sub-titles were warning about FED likely to push QE3 as unemployment rate for US has risen to a worse-than-expected 9.8 per cent last Friday. Does that means that the QE4 scenario is getting nearer?

Some newspapers reports are switching to advising Developers what to do (LOL). "Time to build up land banks", screamed TODAY on 26 Nov 2010. Even the experienced Conrad Raj joined the call, with his "Developers keep the faith, make big bets" (TODAY on Dec 3). I guessed MBT must be struggling with his weekly "Cheap and Affordable Public Housing"  column for TODAY. He had to pop out again yesterday (7 Dec) on TV News to impress all that COV has fallen again for a second month. But as a blogger wrote, 'why is there a need at all for "COV" in the first place?', when there is already an independent "valuation" report. In Singapore, "we" create "procedures" to make life difficult while making some people "richer" and the Govt is still so proud of it. I think it is wrong governance. Let me ask all a question, what do you think should be the "valuation" of the old Ming styled building shown in the video clip above? What do you think is the fair rental that the shopowner selling these simple souvenirs  must pay to keep his business as a going concern? Now do you see this wider perspective I am sharing, when it is your property; which is why I added this video of a "historical" building above? Why should there be "COV" as a "tip", just like compulsory "service charge" at a restaurant?

Review of Adverts

 

When I read the ST adverts the previous Saturday, some taking a full page, I noted the "selling price psf" was mostly not there. Obviously, this is attract people to ask for the "price" which Developers would probably have switched to "negotiable" mode by now.

 

(1) Advert 1 - NV Residences 99 Yr LH Private Condo

 

 

Photo : Part NV Residences Advert ST 27 Nov 2010

 

The above is part of the NV Residences. Now look at the price advertised @ "fr $763 psf". If this is not technically "invitation to treat" in "contracts", it must be a fall in price. Now you may recall this star performer selling at $830 psf since soft-launch. I wonder if this is the unit price for a "Penthouse" or "normal" unit or a 8% discount! From my own knowledge, it was standard procedure for this established Developer to offer discount at 8% when appropriate. Those who are keen perhaps may call to check and feedback to me.

 

(2) Advert 2 - The Canopy 99 Yr EC

 

 

Photo : Part of The Canopy Advert ST 27 Nov 2010



The above is part of The Canopy's Advert. Selling price from $530 psf.  You may recall, 240 out of 406 were sold on the first day of the launch at $650-$700 psf. So is it a 18%~24% discount or is it "invitation to treat" again? From my experience, it is unlikely to price a penthouse with such a big discount. From case 1 above, it would be about 8~10% discount for a penthouse at most. Hence, I believe there was a fall in asking price. Perhaps someone can feedback to me too.

 

(3) Advert 3 - City Scape FH Condo @ Farrer Park

Photo : Part of The City Scape Advert ST 27 Nov 2010

The above is part of City Scape's Advert. Asking price "From $1,235 psf". So for a FH condo located close to a MRT and shopping amenities, the asking price stays high for this small development. But if you had watched Money Week last Sunday, and do believe the analyst's prediction for the 4 EC in H1 2011, I am sure you would jump at this price. This is why I am advising you to look at the bigger picture.

As I said, these were only 3 advertisements which listed prices. The others are probably "negotiable" now. And instead of receiving SMS on launches and open houses, I had just been invited to join an "investment club" of a developer for free.

Finally, with QE3 looking more imminent and the QE4 scenario not impossible by 2012, or may be even sooner; as China is likely to raise interest rates in the coming days. This was further to the mid Oct hike. While I was in China, the Bank RR was raised. But the interest rate just have to go up again due to inflation. I had read this article "China's 'bubble about to burst'" in The Daily Telegraph, you may be keen to take a look. (See Reference #4).

Following the last round of rate hike by China, Singapore responded with "S$ appreciation" but "SINBOR" was lowered the next day. Will Singapore keep its "door wide open" again if China up its interest rate in the next few days, and with QE3 coming soon?

Nearer home, "a 2012 bust and 2015 boom" for the property market still look very likely to me. MBT announced further Marina Bay land sale will be in 2013. Developments typically take about 2.5~3 years to complete and will therefore complete by 2015 onwards. If there is no bust by 2012,  property prices will escalate to record high prices by 2015 with more supporting infrastructures like the DTL2 and Circle Line fully in place by then. Prices of residential properties will jump by another benchmark and even DBSS and EC would be out-of-reach to the average person despite the supply MBT is pushing out into the market right now. If there is a bust beyond 2015 like what James Neo suggested to me in his "comment" to my earlier posting, many would be severely trapped "without their pants" if they are overly leveraged and the price correction very drastic.

To keep my posting manageable, I am stopping here. In the next posting, I will do a quick sizing up by property class to look at certain recent land bids and property prices while I was away in China, before moving on to write about the China Property Bubble.

Next Posting - Quick Review By Property Class

(a) BTO

(b) DBSS

(c) EC - NTUC Choice Home with DPS carrot or catch?

(d) Market shift to Higher end Mid-Range and Luxury Class - D'Leedon pricing / Pine Grove En Bloc.

(e) The next Waterfront City.

Reference # 1 :-

ST Online Nov 26, 2010

More land for record homes

Reference # 2 :-

ST Online Nov 26, 2010

Bay land for sale in 2013

Reference # 3 :-
Today Nov 26, 2010
Hot money flows and real estate

Referenec # 4 :-

TODAY , Nov 30, 2010

China's 'bubble about to burst'

Hedge fund manager Mark Hart warns of imminent implosion of world's second-largest economy

by THE DAILY TELEGRAPH

FORT WORTH (TEXAS) - China is in the "late stages of an enormous credit bubble", according to American hedge fund manager Mark Hart, who has made millions predicting the crises in the United States sub-prime market and European debt.

Mr Hart, who runs Corriente Advisors from Fort Worth, Texas, has launched a fund to bet on the imminent implosion of China.

He warns of an "economic fall-out" that will be as "extraordinary as China's economic out-performance over the last decade".

Asking investors for a minimum of US$1 million ($1.32 million) each for its China Opportunity Master Fund, Corriente will use sovereign and corporate credit default swaps, interest rate and foreign exchange options to trade on its expectations of a collapse.

Mr Hart, who launched a record-performing US sub-prime fund as early as 2006 and in 2007, a fund that bets on a European debt crisis, warns investors: "Complacency among market participants regarding China is eerily similar to the complacency exhibited prior to the US sub-prime crisis and European sovereign debt crisis."

Mr Hart says "inappropriately low interest rates and an artificially suppressed exchange rate" have created dangerous bubbles in sectors including:

(a)Raw materials: Correinte says China has consumed only 65 per cent of the cement it has produced in the past five years, after exports. The country is currently producing more steel than the next seven largest producers combined - it now has 200 million tonnes of excess capacity, more that the European Union and Japan's total production so far this year.

(b)Property prices: The average price-to-rent ratio of China's eight key cities is 39.4 times - this figure was 22.8 times in America just before its housing crisis.

Corriente argues: "Lacking alternative investment options, Chinese corporations, households and government entities have invested excess liquidity in the property markets, driving home prices to unsustainable levels."

(c)Banking: As with the credit crisis in the West, the banks' exposure to the infrastructure credit bubbles is not obvious because the debt is held in Local Investment Companies (LIC) - shell entities which borrow from Chinese banks and invest in fixed assets.

Mr Hart reckons that "bad loans will equal 98 per cent of total bank equity if LIC owned, non-cashflow producing assets are recognised as non-performing".

As a final blow, Mr Hart says that the market belief that the Chinese government has "ample resources" to bail out its banks is flawed.

Corriente's analysis of the ratio of China government debt to GDP comes out at 107 per cent - five times higher than official numbers.

The hedge fund says this number uses "conservative assumptions" and the real figure could be as high as 200 per cent.

The result is that, rather than being the key engine for global growth, China is an "enormous tail-risk", Mr Hart says.

CELEBRATING 1ST "BIRTHDAY" OF THIS BLOG

This blog celebrates its 1st "Birthday" today (4 December 2010) as it was first conceived on 4 December 2009.

However, this blog did not spring to "hive" until August 2010, when the popular topic ""The Property Bubble and Investment Trap" was first posted. Traffic to the site was probably boosted with my frank insight opinions and unbiased comments.

The achievements of this Blog and its sustained traffic would not be possible without giving credits to Mr Tan Kin Lian's Blog, The Singapore Daily and your continual support. These blogs divert about 20% and 80% of the traffic here respectively. 80% of the visitors are Singaporeans with the balance 20% pulled from over 40 countries worldwide despite a small readership, but it is sustainable.

Little milestones of This Blog :-

(a) 4 Dec 2009 - Blog Conceived
(b) 6 Dec 2009 - First Posting
(c) 12 Feb 2010 - "How To Ensure Affordable Low Cost Housing?" article highlighted by the SG Daily site and 1st Comment posted on 14 Feb 2010.
(d) 18 Feb 2010 - Blog caught attention of a NUS Doctoral Candidate for research on blogging.*
(e) 8 July 2010 - "A Tale of Two Cities" Series started.
(f) 14 Aug 2010 - Invitation extended by Jelutung Community Club @ Canberra YEC for "Freedom of Speech" event.*
(g) 16 Aug 2010 -The Popular "The Property Bubble and Investment Trap" Series Started.
(h) 19 Aug 2010 - Site Meter Histats installed.
(i) 24 Aug 2010 - Single Day Highest Visitors Achieved - 291 (239 new visitors).
* Note : This Blog remains totally "non-aligned" despite such invitations and may not respond as such.

While the interest of readers remains in property investment, I like to re-visit the theme of this site which is to promote a civil society and eradicate the "Leviathan" mindset. I like to mark this day with a tribute to Thomas Hobbes and his Literature on Leviathan.

Thomas Hobbes (5 April 1588 – 4 December 1679) was a champion of absolutism for the sovereign but he also developed some of the fundamentals of European liberal thought: the right of the individual; the natural equality of all men; the artificial character of the political order (which led to the later distinction between civil society and the state); the view that all legitimate political power must be "representative" and based on the consent of the people; and a liberal interpretation of law which leaves people free to do whatever the law does not explicitly forbid.

The popular series on  "The Property Bubble and Investment Trap" was a strict topic with mere words and few photographs. The bash from this 1st anninersary would be a revamp to add more vivid colours and photos in this Blog. I hope visitors will like it. I also welcome your comments and contributions for postings, if they are appropriate. You may write to email address :- deleviathan@gmail.com.

HAPPY "BIRTHDAY" AND A MORE VIVID AND COLOURFUL TOMORROW

Election Watch Part I - A Response To Yu-Kym’s “DO YOU HATE SINGAPORE?”

This article is contributed my me to the Singapore General Election Portal (SGEP).

I just returned to Singapore after a 3-week annual retreat in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, China. Singaporeans should be quite familiar about this 2nd Tier city in China from its history and also the number of investments the Singapore Govt / GLC had poured into this region in China.

I first visited Nanjing in Year 2000 and had re-visited it again several times. I have seen the transformation and progress of this 2nd Tier City, host city of the next YOG; in the last decade, versus what I live and experienced in Singapore as a First World Country. Great reflections, like the photos shown below, each visit. While in China, I was totally locked out of part of the blogosphere as China bans Facebook, Blogger, Twitters, etc. Despite having broadband access, I could not access many websites and blogs I visit regularly. I was trying to catch with more news about the coming General Election as I was able to gather from the Singapore General Election Portal (SGEP) that our PM had instructed the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee to be convened.

Photo : Clear Reflections of Ming-Styled Architecture Along Qinghuai River, Fuzi Miao or Confucius Temple Area. Clean and Green. No Debris. No Flooding. No LKY Water Prize Award Given.

Soon after my return, I started to look up the missed part of blogosphere when I stumbled upon this posting in Yu-Kym’s Blog. [ Link : http://yu-kym.blogspot.com/2010/11/do-you-hate-singapore.html] [Top 10 Singapore's Most Insightful Blogs 2009 and 2010]. It had this caption “Do you hate Singapore?” and commented on the following key topics, which in my own opinion make good raw materials for an Election Debate, since they affect our ordinary daily life - Wealth distribution, Cost of living, Free speech, Subsidies and Taxes, Emigration, Authoritarian Government, Elections.

I can’t resist making fair comparison between ordinary lives in Nanjing, a China 2nd Tier City vs Singapore, a First World Nation, and reflecting on my own observations about the developments in Nanjing and China, in contrast with Singapore for the past decade.

"Do you hate Singapore?"

The author’s choice of this question as her topic was most misleading, if not weird, for her ensuing comments on these key national issues. I would not dismiss her thoughts as immature and naive, but they must have been connoted with a mixed feeling of a different form of political apathy, complacency with our system and some personal favouritism. It sought to sell politics of envy to favour the system’s status quo rather than to encourage positive critics to see more improvements for our country as a nation and not a City Incorporated.

I hope it is not representative of a new generation of younger Singaporeans brought up under PAP’s elitist style of governance and educational system. As SM Goh Chok Tong mentioned, the coming election would be a “watershed” one, as the next PM would probably come from PAP’s list of new protégés which may belong to this new 4G generation.

It is totally wrong to suggest and imply that people who criticize our systems are people who “hate” Singapore. The author proclaimed “People only hate Singapore or the Singapore government when they themselves fail to keep up. This wrong assumption must have caused her to cast her wild assertions and / or complacent remarks to persuade greater political apathy, and if not; to promote greater complacency. In MM Lee’s own words, “complacency” had been the root cause of some of our recent major regrettable faults and lapses, the MSK Saga II included.

To the contrary, I see in the hearts of many Singaporean critics, a passion to see and move things rightly and smoothly, in a course which they feel is now alarmingly wrong and obstructed by the “complacent” hands of the incumbent PAP Government. By staying “Anonymous” is not a sin but could be an equal right and option to every “Freedom of Speech” believer. It only takes greater gut and dignity to add more decorum with a name to a piece of writing by declaring, but it adds no weight or substance if the whole argument is flawed or biased.

It is equally disgusting to read known writers selling vague ideas with or without intent to obscure the reality and truths of life, even if such writers are from the top 20%, and completely at ease with our systems for granting them the comfort and grace to keep up with material achievements and pursuits. Spare some thoughts for the bottom 20% who needs help. These are people who might not even have the luxury to enjoy our expensive infrastructures like landing at a first-class Changi International Airport.

Wealth distribution

The issue whether Ministers are paid million-dollar salaries is totally apart from what the writer perceived as also relevant to “wealth distribution”. It adds to the envy, if any. It also does not matter that they are leading amongst the top 20% who are completely at ease with our system, even if the writer is right in her arguments. Issues should be put in proper perspective and context if indeed a “total” solution is desirable, or even swayed in favour of the needy bottom 20%.

"What people should be spending time thinking about is how to get into the top 20% instead of complaining about how much other people are earning.", the writer said. This is somewhat elitist thinking and selfish. For the 20% at ease, there is another bottom 20% struggling for survival. There is another 60% “caught-in-between”. It does not matter if a country is First or Third World. The degree of suffering at the bottom is about the same anywhere on Earth.

If “competent” Government is not about making million dollar salaries, it must be about narrowing the gap between the TOP 20% and the BOTTOM 20%, and this is what wealth creation and distribution must entail. In reality, the bottom 20% would never climb up and cross the 50% mark, not to say become the top 20%, notwithstanding efficient wealth distribution methods. Equal opportunities are for those who are equally endowed, in MM Lee’s choice of words; this would be “Act of God”.

"I think if we had known how quickly the pace of change would accelerate and how much our people would be under pressure from globalisation, we would have prepared them for it earlier," said PM Lee, in reply to CNN International Asia-Pacific managing editor Ellana Lee's question on whether he would have done anything differently on hindsight during a dialogue session as part of CNN's 30th anniversary celebrations. If the common people’s welfare and aspirations could be missed out in a New Millennium Dream for our country, this is “complacency” and not “equal opportunities”, especially if more cheaper foreign workers are then imported in to spur and sustain our economy. Our system does believe in little social benefits but conversely it also collects high GST which benefits the country.

Even if we have to adopt “politics of envy’ to spur on Singaporeans, we must take on a proper perspective. I like to share some data here by taking a glimpse of China’s Rich (1999~2009) in the past decade. [ Source : http://tech.qq.com/a/20100527/000510.htm ]

A Glimpse of China's Rich (1999-2009)

Half in the property, energy and IT sectors;

29%, or 567, in the property sector;

12%, or 235, in the energy sector;

11%, or 221, in the IT sector;

9%, or 179, in the financial sector;

40% did not receive higher education or even finish primary school;

30% earned a bachelor's degree or an associate diploma;

30% earned a master's education or above (458 master, 79 PhD);

Less than 7%, or 130, earned overseas qualifications;

Most live in Shanghai, Beijing, Hangzhou, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.

The above data illustrates what “equal” opportunities could bring about while it also demonstrates what the mammoth “task” and relevance of what wealth creation and distribution is all about. 40% of their super-rich “did not receive higher or even finish primary education” while there is still a major segment of the population who can ill-afford down payment for a basic home in a 2nd or even 3rd Tier City. China has a large population, Nanjing’s population in Year 2000 Nov Census was almost 3.78 million. (Singapore 4.02 million then including non-residents, and comparable). I do not have the latest statistics as the population census was just completed during my recent retreat , but unofficial figures for Nanjing’s population for 2009 was 7.7 million, compared to 5.07 million for Singapore this year based on census. The land area of Nanjing is about 9.5 times Singapore’s. And just in inner Nanjing itself, you can see what a disparity in income has brought about.

Photo : An Old Neighbourhood in the Jiankang Road Area undergoing roof replacement and façade re-painting works. Yet many Nanjing residents can ill-afford such old housing.

Photo : A Newly Completed High-rise Apartment Block in the Hexi Area for The Rich in Nanjing, Inner Suburb.

Photo : A Bungalow Styled Clustered Development in the Hexi Area for The Rich in Nanjing.

Since we are at this topic following the writer’s trend of thoughts, I wondered if our Health Minister Khaw Boon Wan who recently led a PAP Delegation to Jiangsu , Nanjing; had asked his Jiangsu Party Secretary counterpart, Liang Baohua; how much the Chinese ministers and top civil servants are paid?

[Link#1 : http://mohsingapore.blogspot.com/2010/09/vegan-in-jiangsu.html]

[Link#2 : http://www.pap.org.sg/articleview.php?id=7303&cid=29]

Cost of living

The fact that our population is still “consuming” is not bad economically but it does not mean that the “cost of living” is not high. “By the way, the fact that people are complaining on the Internet proves that they are not poor enough. Poor people will be too busy trying to earn money and probably have no access to Internet", argued the writer. The cost of living affects each income bracket differently. Those complaining on the Internet may not be complaining just for themselves. They may be complaining for the bottom 20% of our population who may not access blogosphere. The fact remains that the “poor” are “too busy trying to earn money” and therefore could not afford to complain. But there must be people who care to highlight their plight on high living costs in the Internet or any other media. The author’s “all for ourselves” as long as she could make it to “the top 20%” assumption and argument is totally flawed and very dangerous for an evolving 4G Singaporeans.

Free speech

There is no meaning in free speech if writers do not make good sense in their arguments, notwithstanding putting their names and pictures. It will not add weight or depth to the arguments. In the writer’s words, it is more “waste”. Free speech is also not just about making “noise”. Free speech is also not just about the Internet, but technology has made it a convenient medium. This medium is a double-edge sword – it is highly accessible and a less regulated medium, though it could be abused. But just because there are “black sheep” does not mean the medium is inefficient and ineffective for communication. Complacency and paranoid can only bring down what would be a helpful medium.

If you compare with high-handed tactics on the media for propaganda adopted by the PAP in early Elections, you may marvel what this new media can now do despite the “black sheep” and amidst the "Internet noise". It is a learning process to digest both critics and data and putting and leaving them in contending perspectives for the electorate to decide. It is better for a more educated electorate to mature, just like parents would want their child to grow and mature, then to hide and avoid issues to safeguard and sustain survival of political parties.

Subsidies and Taxes

“Subsidies come from somewhere: the taxpayers.” – very true. The essence is in how the Govt spends “taxes” wisely in the form of “subsidies” and also “expenses”. The dilemma is our Govt policies are often “caught-in-between” and far from being aligned. They tell you it is “justifiable” to pay high Ministers’ salaries. They debate for long hours in Parliament, before deciding to give financial “titbits” through social grants to the deserving destitute. Without telling you, they spent several times the YOG budget, and then finally tell you they actually did not account for this and that. They tell you a first class civil service is only achievable with high salaries that are pegged to the private sector. But when you feedback or complained about their inefficiencies, they maintain the “Sound of Silence” with full protocol. They say we must achieve "standards", but believe in condoning “double standards” for their own mistakes. This is high-handed governance which a more sophisticated electorate does not wish to see. Whether this will still be accepted is an election issue by itself.

Levelled road side-table, walkway / bicycle track, with Real-Time Monitoring (CCTV) and aesthetic lampposts along this old stretch of shop-houses / apartments near Fuzi Miao Area, Nanjing Inner City Area.

There could be fewer subsidies given but we still must see that our “taxes” are worth what we have paid for. If more goes to the spending on expensive infrastructures, are the poor marginalized and deprived of their basics?

The author boasted about flying back happily to land at a first-class Changi International Airport (world’s best) each time and Singapore becoming the future "Switzerland of Asia" while attempting to buy the Australian Stock Exchange and allowing the heroic appreciation of the Singapore dollar, viz. making our exports more expensive. While arguing that the money has to come from “somewhere” which is not the Ministers' pockets, the author perhaps failed to realize that her enjoyable flight and custom clearance through Changi Airport each time has been made possible through the “sweat” and “taxes” paid by generations of toiling Singaporean workers. It did not come easy just because of the top 20% now who feel at ease with our system. It neither came from the Ministers’ pockets nor through printing money through QE 1 or QE2. It encompasses more.

Emigration

Given the writer’s take on “People only hate Singapore or the Singapore government when they themselves fail to keep up”, the top 20% of the population will certainly not migrate. Is this true? The bottom 20% is too poor to migrate. Only a small percentage of the balance 60% with some calibre will want to migrate if they opt to, while PM Lee claimed our people were not prepared by the Govt to face the pace of globalization for the last 5~10 years. How would this transform our society if all thinks the way as the writers “for planning, working, saving and taking care of themselves” and just thinking about how to get into the top 20%?

There are always two sides to a coin (or policies) and our Earth is always round and rotating and will never fall asleep on any one side.

One contributory factor to the “Deserters” had been not lending enough “More Good Ears” to those who had the passion to criticize. The “Deaf Frog” theory with “The New Millennium Dream In Retrospective” for failing to see “how quickly the pace of change would accelerate and how much our people would be under pressure from globalization” will continue to add on to the “Deserters” woes. [Link : http://de-leviathan.blogspot.com/2010/10/new-millennium-dream-in-retrospective.html]. Simply, Singapore just could not be sustained; with the top 20% who at ease and comfortable, whether in terms of population demographics or brains only for making more money. This would not only put PAP at risks but the whole country.

Authoritarian Government

My concern is if Singaporeans with the same mindset as the writer belonging to a “softer” 4G generation should join PAP and become the leaders of Singapore tomorrow, regardless if the next PM will be from such a generation, will it then be too late to sigh “in retrospect” for “not equipping Singaporeans five to 10 years earlier” with the right political education and direction to see a more thinking, matured and sophisticated electorate.

PM Lee told the dialogue session attendants at the CNN's 30th anniversary celebrations, that the Government has invested heavily in education and training. But if it had known how critical skills and ability were to "get ahead and do better", it would have put "even more resources in". I like to ask in which areas and what ways. By just getting IT savvy youths equipped and knowledgeable to handle technologically advanced gadgets and i-phones, just as he shown the nation in his N-Day rally speech, and if not; how and what?

Even if Chee Soon Juan could one day “jump up from his grave” to hold PAP’s out-stretched hands whole-heartedly, we may be simply just too late. [Please take this as “metaphor” and humour, not acceptance of political ideology]. We must realize that the PAP is already suffering the fate of its own wrong-doings due to selfish paranoid for ensuring political party survival.

The author said, “If Singaporeans feel they are ruled by the government, it only goes to show that they are afraid of something. What could it be? Most likely it's the fear of having to take responsibility for their own actions and choices.” Well asked.

Well said "If the people are to be ruled they must first be scared", but I am asking “Why and what is the PAP as a part of “Singaporeans” afraid and paranoid about? Are they still “afraid of something” having reached the top of the top 20% who are at ease and comfortable. In MM Lee’s words, it would only be “complacency”, with monetary “spurs stuck in the hides” but waiting for “Acts of God”, because they are “afraid” like what the author said.

Political leaders need not set themselves apart as a unique worthy “privileged” class even if they have the means not to be “afraid” of the VOTE, and could be accorded with such privileges in office and monetary compensation. This would retrograde and regress us back to colonial history.

The education system must solve this lack of “critical skills and ability” to think politically in order for us to "get ahead and do better" as a whole. It should not be taken as a “political mess” involving political parties but a mess due to the lack of Government foresight and conviction for renewal and survival.

Elections

The author said, “It's interesting what BBC wrote in Singapore's country profile: "Prime Minister: Lee Hsien Loong. The elder son of Singapore's founding father Lee Kuan Yew, Lee Hsien Loong took office in August 2004, without an election, as part of a planned handover of power”. I wish the author had read something I read in a Nanjing newspaper a few years back about “Princelings (太子党)” just before he took over office as PM and his controversial visit to Taiwan. Such callings and criticisms are “open” in China. They even refer to the current likely successor to the Party Chairman post as another “Princeling”. And MM Lee had described him as "a princeling who succeeded despite being rusticated". Sometime, I wonder if China is more “democratic and open” than us in its own ways. [ You may read more about this topic in this NUS research paper at this Link: http://www.eai.nus.edu.sg/BB278.pdf  and article in The Guardian Link: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/us-embassy-cables-documents/210110]

"When the general election draws near, the government often hands out cash in various [forms] to citizens. Most of them would run to the nearest handphone shop to buy new handphones. After they have gotten their new handphones and cast their votes, they start complaining again about the government that they elected!", said the writer. Why is the Govt so afraid then that they have to hand out such sweeteners? Is the author “poking fun” at our form of politics, Govt or the telcos? The telcos would once be called “princeling-controlled” in China, and I recall a joke from a Malaysian friend that “M1” means “Mother’s 1” in Malaysia and not "Malaysia’s 1 or Mahathir’s 1.

Conclusions For Looking Ahead

Following Yu-Kym’s sub-titles in her posting, I must conclude here. I feel for the “Better or Worse”, we must take her writing on this topic positively to reflect on the weaknesses in our political and education systems, rather than her incoherent arguments and dangerous assertions to support more “complacency” and wider “political apathy”.

A General Election is a good time to reflect and “spur” ahead. The electorate must be given a chance to mature further. Its level of maturity must get over and go beyond just “Out-dated Election fears”, “Lift-upgrading”, “Internet noise”, and a “soft 4G post-1980 i-phone-wielding” generation of eligible voters; flying like “headless houseflies” but “landing at Changi Airport”. We must evolve and move on from here to mature. Just like every parent would want to see their kids mature and be independent to survive the stresses of globalization.

If the PAP chooses to be “afraid”, it must be about the survival of Singapore’s destiny and not its own party survival.

The authoritarian style has finally got its own Mentor tired. MM Lee told an audience of 200 business leaders at the 40th anniversary of Hewlett-Packard, “A person needs to have a life free from unnecessary hassle.”

"That's what we set out to create, and that's something we should keep improving on. It doesn't matter how the world changes, we have to stay ahead of the pack."

But he emphasised that to stay ahead of the curve, a stable society is necessary - one where it is 'easy to go to school and come back, easy to go to the hospital and come back'. But I ask, “Have we achieved these?”

MM Lee on his own privileged “expressway” under the auspices of his office, authority and mentorship, just like this sole Nanjing Biker at Hexi shown in the photo below; has finally also got “tired”. How about the ordinary Singaporeans (particularly the older ones) who toiled for generations to support the construction of such highways both in the form of infrastructures and to support political “privileges”?

A Lone Biker enjoying the luxury of cycling along this bicycle track beside a landscaped pedestrian walkway and 8-Lane Dual Carriageway in the Hexi Area for the Rich in Nanjing, China.

Singaporeans have no options whether to live in a 2nd Tier City like Nanjing or any other 3rd Tier ones. Despite the present affluent status of our country as a whole; many would never dream to live lavishly in a 1st Tier City.

While Singaporeans have been overlooked in the Govt’ s plan to stay ahead of the globalization path in the past decade, as our PM admitted; our rich GLCs are making vast investments even in a 2nd Tier City like Nanjing, such as in Lukou Airport, Jiangxin Zhou and also Comfort Delgro Taxis. Whether the grapes to be harvested from Jiangxin Zhou investment will be “sweet or sour”, a fact is we are now not cruising but dashing in a pace dangerously on PIE Expressway, with a carefree but risky FT biker tagging along, which blogger Koropokman care to cautious. We may not even have options to enjoy the safety, luxury or even "privileges" granted by the state; to be on a 8-Lane Carriageway as in a 2nd Tier City like Nanjing, as the photo below shows.

Photo : A FT or tourist cycling and testing the nerves of motorists along the Pan Island Expressway, Singapore. Source : KEROPOKMAN'S - SINGAPORE DAILY PHOTO [ Link : http://keropokman.blogspot.com/2010/11/cyclist-on-pie.html ]

Finally, just because I chose to write openly does not mean that I “hate” Singapore, but I do hate bad "caught-in-between" policies.

Photo : Spacious 8-Lane Dual Carriageway in the Hexi Area, Nanjing. On each side of the carriageway is a spacious bicycle track and pedestrian walkway with landscaped trees. (Shown in photo above)

Read : More Interesting Articles at the Singapore General Election Portal (SGEP)

Back From Nanjing City, Jiangsu Province, China.

Hi there, visitors to my blog.

I am back from my annual retreat in Nanjing and hopefully afresh and ready to put up some interesting postings again. During this short break, I note there is still a sustained stream of visitors to my blog which is most encouraging.

I hope with this short break in China will help  me to do some interesting postings here, both on the Property Investment Trap and other sideliners, with a perspective from the external business environment of the world's emerging largest economy, just as China unveiled its growth plan during the recent G20 Summit in Seoul; amidst its rampant inflation CPI currently at 4.4%.

China's Vice-President Xi Jinping had just visited Singapore last Sunday, his first overseas trip since a key military promotion last month, and presided over the groundbreaking of the China Cultural Centre (located at 217 Queen Street in Singapore's Arts and Heritage District). Is this the only way for cultural exchange since SM Goh said that ties between Singapore and China are more than just political and economic? There is always another side to every good view which I hope to present here vividly.

I was watching U Channel Chinese News last night after a 3-week break. There was highlight about "insurance and safety" for a primary school's coming study tour to China. The young innocent kid was proudly interviewed and she said the trip would be "helpful" for her to understand what is the "actual Chinese Language" - I guessed she meant "properly spoken" Chinese language. If I were to face with such a situation in China, I would be totally embarassed. It seems strange that we (as Chinese) have to send our students overseas to another country to learn and understand what is "proper" Chinese language and culture. Something must have been wrong with our values and educational system since gaining independence. I recall there was once a portfolio of "Minister of Culture" while MM Lee is still so proud about our "success" for our 2nd Language education policy. Anyway, I hope to add some interesting sideliners in my postings soon.

MING ARCHITECTURE AND PORTAL AT NANJING, FUZI MIAO

"BACK-LIT" VIEW OF THE SAME PORTAL

Note : In my rush to do my lasting posting before my annual retreat, I had no time to do a final edit before posting. I had made some typo errors. I hope if you had read in between the lines, you would have had picked them up. My sincere apologies. Obvious - next likely property boom in 2015 instead of "2005". I have corrected it.

Annual Retreat

I will be taking my annual retreat in China, Jiangsu province.

This will give me first-hand experience to appreciate the rampant inflation facing China's economy and how it impacts the daily life of the local people. It also gives me the chance to understand the Bubble of the Chinese Property Market better.

I will continue to post about property issues from a transnational perspective on the USA, Japan and China property markets.

I may have limited Internet access during the period in China and I do hope to be able to do postings from there.


Reference #1

Abstracted From TODAY Oct 21, 2010

China hides rampant inflation in money binge

by Patrick Chovanec

Money, money everywhere. At least that's what it feels like at the moment in China. Awash in luxury cars, condos and expensive jewellery, the Chinese are enjoying what looks to be an unstoppable boom.

Inflation figures due today should give pause to those who assume China's economy is on sound footing. To an extent few appreciate, China's astonishing growth rates these past two years have been fuelled by an even more astonishing expansion of its money supply, by more than 50 per cent. Until now, the inflationary consequences have been largely camouflaged in the form of rising asset prices.

High-end property prices in dozens of Chinese cities doubled during the global financial crisis. Sales of gold bars have done the same this year. Fine pieces of jade are selling at US$3,000 ($3,950) an ounce, up 50 per cent in the past couple of months, while packets of certain types of Da Hong Pao tea are going for US$30,000 a kilogramme. Art and wine auctions in China are pulling in record prices, while the Shanghai stock market surged 8.5 per cent last week to the highest level in almost six months.

Now there are signs that inflation is spilling over into consumer prices. China's CPI has been climbing steadily all year and Chinese officials are making noises about raising their CPI target to 4 per cent or even higher. Food prices gained 7.5 per cent in August, from a year earlier. Economists estimate wages are rising about 8 per cent. The HSBC Holdings Purchasing Manager Index survey for August reported a marked increase in input cost being passed along in higher output prices......

In reality, there is rampant inflation in China. It's just showing up in asset prices. The new money that was created entered the economy as loans, mainly to fund investment in fixed assets. When it finally reached consumers, they bought tangibles, like property, instead of spending on consumer goods.

Asset-price inflation is tricky because it doesn't feel like inflation. When the price of bread doubles, it feels like it's getting harder to make ends meet. When condo prices double, it looks like smart investors are getting rich. But it's only a matter of time before asset inflation starts working its way through the rest of the economy as broader price inflation - and puts China's policymakers in a serious bind. Bloomberg

The Property Bubble & Investment Trap Part XI - Currency war may fuel bubbles - Impact on Mid Range & Luxury Class Properties

Last week, I wrapped off the last leg of my posting on the mass market condo with a cautionary note on a likely "currency war" that could boost inflation and asset prices in emerging markets and thus fueling a property bubble which may burst and hurt the overall market generally.

What the Currency War Really Means?

I was surfing the web for news about the "currency war" to study implications when I hit upon this voice blog -"Gold, Currency War, ADP, Inflation, Jobs" - How Currency War Affects Stock Market and Economy. What the author said was interesting. He said in a "War" you are killing the "Enemy Forces", but in a "Currency War" you are actually killing your own "Friendly Forces". Hence as Govts and their Central Banks fight it out, it is the ordinary citizens within these countries who suffer. As a currency war wages out, it boosts inflation and asset prices. The US is pretending as if  there is no inflation, maintaining low interest rate and arguing for other nations to appreciate their currency so that they (US) would be competitive in exports to correct the trade imbalance. Gold and Silver hit their peaks. The Swiss and Aust  saw their currencies hitting 52 weeks high. Japanese Yen  hit its 15 year high ... inflation will go up in emerging countries as hot monies flow in to hunt down "affordable" properties, leading to asset inflation and perhaps general hyper-inflation later on when interest rate will just escalate.

And taking global markets by surprise, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) tightened its monetary policy last week - signaling its intent to combat inflation even as the Republic's economic growth slows.  The move, which allayed the fears of business owners and consumers about rising costs, sent the Singapore dollar soaring to a record high against the greenback - it also sent the US dollar tumbling against a wide range of currencies. The US dollar was at 1.2953 against the Singapore dollar and was being quoted at a record low of 1.2893 shortly after MAS' announcement. All must be waiting to hear what our PM will say  on the forthcoming G20 Meet about why Singapore is going against the trend of fighting currency appreciation for emerging countries.

Immediately after the MAS's announcement, banks pulled another stunner when SINBOR was lowered from 0.5 to 0.44 % the next day.

Very often in Singapore, our policies are just not simply mapped out and aligned to help out needy individuals by implementing  simple control measures. They are often swayed to be so called "sustainable" which is actually making them more "pocket-centric" for the Govt, either in terms of earning more revenue and /or to cut costs. If everyone upstream only care about their own pockets, what should property buyers at the downstream of the value chain do? Afterall, the Govt simply pushes out the land plots, and it is the developers who are pricing the units built for the buyers to take up, with "easy" money entering state coffer no matter it is "boom" or "bust" for the end-purchasers.

Meanwhile, MBT will let out more land supply and leave you to "fight it out" with the developers if you take it on now, and even with more FTs or hot foreign investors. I had illustrated my claim with a few analysis of recent land bids in earlier postings but it is not exclusively mentioned by me, but also by others (read this link). HK has just restricted giving PR to foreign investors but not Singapore. Singapore is letting them in and restricting them from leaving with the newly announced stricter measures as in the case of landed housing. For the price band from mass market condo to luxury class condo, they are still free to roam. Singapore's policies are seldom really consistent. They often get you caught-in-between. The only instance you see consistency is when the state thinks about making money and you are paying.

Too strong a SingDollar may still encourage more hot monies to flow in to speculate instead of checking it by making property a little more expensive notwithstanding the cooling measures. It is not bad a time to do some "positioning" in your strategy now by watching external economic drivers and doing some field recce of potential properties, but it is certainly not the time to buy yet. As MBT puts it in Parliament, since the measures "have been introduced less than two months ago, it is too early to assess their full impact". But we do know that developers only sold 911 private homes in Sep 2010, down from 1,259 in August, with the bulk of the sales due to heavy demand in one project, the NV Residences. Don't forget MBT has no obligations to help HDB owners upgrade to private properties. But he has obligations to make as much as possible for the Govt coffer from his land sales for DBSS, EC or mass market condo, which will spiral up the price of re-sale flats, and upon which his new BTO flat prices will be pegged.

Targeting the Market Segments

With more hot money likely to flow in as the currency war wages,  is it then time to buy ? Foreigners are unlikely to be buying and speculating on new DBSS and ECs, or even mass market condos - so why the hell are those EC buyers at the recent launches willing to pay so much when the price has not consolidated? The action is more likely to be shifted up the price spectrum on the mid-range and luxury class condo segments. Foreign buyers are more likely to target this part of the price spectrum for speculative investment with the Govt leaving it to market forces, while the GOVT and Developers target to make more money out of Singaporeans' pockets for the DBSS, EC and mass market condo segement, out of the land bidding and development process.

Market Forces - Buyers vs Sellers

Now, with SIBOR rates lowered, the Buyers have more time to mull over their purchases and put even more pressure on Sellers. The Sellers now have a bigger disadvantage than initially anticipated especially amongst those who were contemplating new upgrades with the current low rates – they will get desperate to sell to bank-roll their new investments. Speculators who have already purchased their new projects will sell quicker than those under no such pressure. The correction in housing prices will start with these under-pressure. Sellers who cave-in to consolidate their finances even if it means selling at a lower-than-offered price as long as they do not lose out. Savvy players have already started to make compromises in negotiating prices. This sudden turn-about has caught a lot of Sellers on the wrong foot. Those who have not realized it yet will yield to pressure later and these are the ones who end up bringing the market down.

The Buyers, with the help of the drop in rates, have more time (around a quarter) to mull over their purchases and put more pressure on the Sellers. The measures by MBT has effectively sifted out the small-time players and will hit the over-leveraged speculators. The Buyers now are the cash rich investors who are more likely to be savvy and experienced homeowners with real leverage on their side and now, time to mull and pressure. Amongst the Sellers will be those over-leveraged speculators who will come under pressure to consolidate their investments as their debts catch up with them.

Will Low Rates Last Forever?

But will the rates stay this low forever? We’re getting less than pittance on our savings. An argument in supporting why the MAS had tigthened policy was Singapore had slackened while the financially powerful nations around us like China and Australia have tightened their monetary policies, just as they continue to pursue a firm stand against speculation in containing the asset  bubbles. Ultimaltely, if we did not act, we would end up paying more for imported stuff because the value of our currency remains constant. But this monetary move will also prompts the banks to start raising their rates. While Singapore had surprising done the reverse, China announced a rate hike on 19 Oct 2010.

More significantly, prime rates will drive up and this is going to drive the property market later on. Expect a surge in buying as real buyers rush in to lock in the current low rates before the banks start hiking. This should send property prices up in a flurry. And as quickly as it starts, the buying will end. Real investrors  should wait for this to happen. When it does, prices will come down as the Bid/Ask spread inevitably changes direction. With so many properties in speculative Sellers’ hands, the onus will once again swing into the real Buyers’ hands and there will only be a few of them left to snap up the many choice units still left on a down-trending chart of housing prices. The higher prime rate will not bother those dealing with more real cash. Sellers in need of cash to bank-roll their next investment (which they will buy/have bought at a higher price) will be desperate to sell. The fact is that most Singaporeans and PRs eligible to buy homes are over-extended on credit (unlike in China) and will need to consolidate the assets within this opportunistic window. The current measures have limited their ability to weigh in on more credit and they will be forced to liquidate if they wish to continue their property binge or settle their debts – the banks will come calling for the next (huge) payment phase as many property projects come to fruition next year.

Re-cap on Affordability

The real issue about "affordability" is then "can we afford to spend the whole life working and paying for it". When inflation becomes hyper inflation and interest rates starts to hike constantly, that is the time to worry for most owner-occupiers, even if they stay employed. I like to re-cap what Mr Colin Tan said in one of his article in TODAY, "The key to investing in homes" - "When an owner-occupier mis-times his purchase, he spends his whole working life paying for it. When a fully-leveraged investor gets it wrong, like in the real estate board game Monopoly, he becomes a bankrupt and retires from the game."

Patience for the Buyers

New developments are not the way to go now as the resale market will start to look like better and safer bets. Patience is key for the savvy Buyer. Plus with the lower SIBOR rates in place now, the Buyers, have time on their side. If you are a Seller, the Buyer will not envy you. Timing is of the essence :-

•   Wait too long and get too greedy, and you will pay for that greed.

•   Sell too soon and the prices continue to rise and you will pay for that impatience.

It becomes a Buyer's Game, like in Reversi when a corner chip is placed as I mentioned before.

Specifics About the Mid-Range Condo Segment

I like to leave aside the monetary policies for now, unless some interesting events and statistics do crop up soon, to take a quick look at the evolving mid-range and luxury class condo segments. The luxury class is not worth the time for discussion here in this blog as it is a unique niche for the wealthy and I doubt any of these priviledged buyers would be even here to read this blog.

The "mid-range" condo still deserve a closer look to appreciate the mechanics of property investment,  although with escalating prices it is getting out-of-reach for most average purchasers. It used to be the "battleground" in the property market and comprised mainly the 999 Yr LH and FH condos in the prime suburban areas or "outside central region", or roughly the band from $850~$1,200 psf of the current price spectrum. I can divide them into 2 sub-bands - $850~$1,000 psf and $1,000~1,200 psf.

In the historic high of the 1996 Peak, these mid-range condos were released into the market at about $650~$800 psf and $$800 ~$950 psf respectively. So you see current prices has appreciated more or less by $200 psf. In fact what prompted MBT to implement control measures was almost every other private condo transacted just before was above $1,000 psf.

My focal points will be approaching it from 2 angles to round off :-

(a) that of "risky buying" vs "good investment value"

(b) summarising the overall pricing trends from 1996 ~ 2010 in relation to the PPPI and economic crisis.

When young, I was told by my granny simply what property investment was all about. "If you could not afford a property in Holland Road or Orchard Road, you have to look for one nearby 'Hwa Chong' in Bukit Timah".  In those days, it meant "landed" properties because nobody would have dreamt of living in a condominium with facilities. That was simply about LOCATION. In those days, flooding had nothing to do with "Acts of God" and if did not flood at  Bukit Timah then "The Gods Must Be Crazy". Today things get more complicated,  it means choosing something affordable from the properties scattered all over Singapore. The different paces of developments had carved them out quite distinctively to characterise some of these niches.

Affordability at one time meant simply buying outside the prime areas, at the suburban. Hence, we have the Bukit Timah Condo Belt which once defined the mid-range band of condo during the 2006 / 2007 Peak. Today, property value means "Location, Location, Location" and more "Locations" over Singapore ... it not only must be located nearby "Hwa Chong" but it should be next to a DTL 2 MRT station say TKK Station has a famous institution next to it. If not, it  must be say coming up near Upper Serangoon along the Circle Line and such mass market properties 99yr LH are now priced just as expensively as those near Bukit Timah used to be. This brings me to my point about "risky-buying" versus "good investment value" . I like to illustrate with the "en-bloc: redevelopment of Good Luck View or currently known as The Beverly at Toh Tuck Road which was launched at $750 psf.

I happened to be around that area recently and took a picture of the advertisment still posted near the entrance of the site, although the project is SOLD OUT. It says "price from $681 psf onwards". This must have been "an invitation to treat" in the legal context at the time of launch. The project was launched at $750 psf and re-sale price hit as high as $1,130 psf even though current progress is at the "substructure" stage.



View of the Beverly Site from its entrance, showflats had been demolished.

Without even progressing beyond the "substructure" stage, the price of these "invisible" units had shot up from $681 psf when the advertisment sign was put up, to $750 psf when first soft launched, and to about $1,200 psf in the secordary re-sale market when The Terene was launched nearby at about $1,200 psf. Check out this website [Link]. The Terene is nearer to the Beauty World MRT, about half the distance to the Beverly which is about 1.2km away.

Now, I like you to take a closer at the photo of the Beverly advertisment again and zero in on the asking price of $681 psf. Does this seems familiar to you? If you don't, you must re-visit my earlier posting on 28 Sep 2010, "The Property Bubble and Investment Trap Part IX - Land Bid for Punggol 99 Yr LH EC Condo Site", go to my advice on the whole consolidation of the market and re-banding of sale prices. If you note item (c) for the consolidated Price Banding predicted by me, I advised "(c) Mass Market Private 99 Yr LH Condo $680~$720 psf". I am no professor researching on the property market, but I had re-constructed from raw land bids results and news reports, and based on my own insight knowledge of construction costs to decipher and give you this indicative position of a possible consolidation in price of the overall property market. Now, you will appreciate why a mass market LH condo is only worth so much psf, and I had given a reasonable margin of $40 psf. $681 was supposed the launched price of The Beverly but it never did. It shot up by $70 psf on soft-launch and spiral to $1,200 psf for a FH property at a reasonably good suburban exclusive location. I doubt any Analyst or Agent would show you this true perspective, but I have shown you a true picture above.

The FH condo re-sale market prices for reasonably new condo (about 10 years+) in the vincinity of The Beverly are unlikely to go back to $681 psf. It is a reasonable starting price for a mass market LH condo as I said. Re-sales prices for FH condo in this area is about $850 ~ $950 psf. It is quite unlikely to fall below  below $830 psf again because it is pretty close to the Beauty World DTL 2 MRT Station.


This Beverly case illustrates the upside of property appreciation when a purchase is well-timed. Conversely, it also illustrates "risky-buying" which is common when foreign capital flows in and attracts speculators. But as a keen home-occupier you must always be walking in with "eyes-wide-open", this point it is alright for you to take cue from none other than MM Lee.

When prices has reached a level to test the next benchmark at $1,200 psf, you should play it safe by assessing your true affordability and understanding the true mechanics of the whole game play as I explained above and my previous postings.

Summarising the overall pricing trends from 1996 ~ 2010 for Various Property Classes

I could simply tagged various categories of property with obvious price fluctuations to the various crises although the general trend of the boom and bust cycles are always the same. The PPI for the various categories is illustrated here. (Link)

(a) 1996 Peak - private landed properties (Detached, Semi-D, Terraces was still the focus with FH suburban condo catching up the fray.

(b) 2000 Mini-boom - 99 Yr landed terraces and FH suburban condo prices climbed.

(c) 2006 Boom - Focus shifted to the Luxuary Class Condo ... like The Sail, One Shenton and also Sentosa Cove, with the 2 IR projects announced in Q1 2005.

(d) 2010 Boom - Focus shifts to EC and Mass Market Condo along NE, Circle Line and DTL 2 MRT Lines.

What is notable from the above trending ?

(a) Those who invested in FH condo at the 2006 Peak, when interest rate (mortgage) also peaked, saw their their property values depreciated or stagnant following the 2000 Mini-Boom till the 2008 boom and 2009 sudden bust. They were lucky that with the several crises that followed - Dot-com Bust, Sep 11, SARs - provided several opportunities to re-finance which was a blessing in disguise for those once locked in high and long mortgages.

(b) Current focus is totally in reverse ... EC and mass market climbed to ridiculous high prices while SIBOR reached its lowest at 0.44% just recently on 15 Oct 2010.

(c) In between the cycle booms and busts is a period of about 5 years with the property play always focussed more on a particular property class with intermittent supporting play of the HDB resale market in tandem as the upgrading class. Will the next boom then be in 2015? And will there be a severe correction or even burst of the bubble between 2012 ~ 2013? Now following the 2003 SARs crisis, the annoucement of the IRs then boosted property prices and boosted it to reach the 2008 Peak, with rising steel prices; while the China economy impressed to become the World's No 2. It is also a period that Singapore capitalised on cheap and abundant labour resources from China. Given the post Financial Tsunami scenario as equivalent, if not greater in impact to the SARs crisis; will the next severe correction or burst of our bubble then come with the burst of The China Bubble around 2012 ~2013?

Why watch the external drivers and external environment?

I had mentioned my last serial posting about external drivers to watch for further price correction. The reason is simple. On a negative note, when will our bubble burst? On a positive note where and what to target for property investment, even as an owner-occupier (having shown you the The Beverly case) :-

(a) If the external environment is causing further capital inflow into our property market, there will be much action in the mass market condo, and also the mid-range condo market. We may expect more property control measures just like those in China.

(b) If the external environment is not pushing capital inflow into our property market, we would expect actions to be more on the EC and probably mass market condo; with EC prices even boosted due to greater demands, as we note the Govt's interest to gain from high land sales bidding. You may have noted that I had mentioned that established developers are moving into land bids for EC to win "price-leadership" position even on JV. If demand is there, it makes no difference for established developers to be in the EC market or mass 99 Yr condo market; afterall it is end-purchasers who are actually financing the projects, if these projects are 30~40% about sold.

(c) If you look at the overall trending, say there is a boom again in 2015; it is good to buy a new EC now and time to sell then to PRs in say 3 years. But you will be taking over that property at a time when the market might burst (say in 2012~2013); so you may see the price to drop substantially then. But if you choose to buy other re-sale condo say in 2~3 years' time (new buyers now cannot sell in 2~3 years) when the bubble actually burst, you will be buying at an attractive price if there is a severe correction. The same applies for other categories if you buy new.

With this posting I have completed my own "internal" environmental scanning of the property market and hopefully what I have posted here is helpful for you and gave you an idea about the property investment game (or trap). I will soon move on to wider transnational context to look at the external business environment. I hope current visitors to my blog would also be keen to follow up further.


Reference #1 :-

Straits Times Online  Oct 16, 2010

Private home sales down

Cooling measures seem to have immediate impact, with 911 units sold last month PRIVATE home sales last month were down sharply from August, suggesting that the recent steps to cool the surging property market had immediate impact.

Developers sold 911 flats last month - down from 1,259 in August - and a substantial part of that was due to heavy demand for one project.

The level of launches was slightly lower, with 1,058 units released last month, from 1,165 in August, according to the Urban Redevelopment Authority yesterday.

While last month's figures were down, in comparison with the preceding months of mostly bumper transactions, they were still fairly robust and brought sales of new private homes for the first nine months to 12,136. This compares with 12,828 units shifted in the same period last year.

Developers sold 14,688 new homes in the whole of last year, just short of the 2007 record of 14,811 units.

The Aug 30 cooling measures introduced tighter lending rules for people with existing mortgages looking to buy another home, and barred owners who plan to buy a HDB resale flat from keeping their private property, including any held overseas.

Reference #2 :-

ST Online Oct 12, 2010

Currency war may fuel bubbles

http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/Money/Story/STIStory_589615.html

BEIJING - THE world faces risks of a currency war that could boost inflation and asset prices in emerging markets, an official Chinese newspaper said on Tuesday.

The China Securities Journal said in a front-page editorial that Beijing would have to control the pace of yuan appreciation and refrain from raising interest rates in order to ward off inflows of speculative capital......

'The financial crisis could escalate into a currency crisis,'the newspaper said. 'There will be no winner.' Efforts by the United States and Japan to weaken their currencies would lead to higher global commodity prices and fuel money flows into emerging markets, pushing up inflation as well as stock and property prices, it said......

Reference #3 :-

TODAY Oct 15, 2010

Monetary policy tightened

MAS signals its intent to combat inflation, even as economic growth slows

Taking global markets by surprise, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) tightened its monetary policy yesterday - signaling its intent to combat inflation even as the Republic's economic growth slows.

The move, which allayed the fears of business owners and consumers about rising costs, sent the Singapore dollar soaring to a record high against the greenback - it also sent the US dollar tumbling against a wide range of currencies.

The US dollar was at 1.2953 against the Singapore dollar and was being quoted at a record low of 1.2893 shortly after MAS' announcement.

While some experts worldwide expressed surprise at the global impact of MAS' move, a Barclays Capital report pointed out that Singapore was "seen as a barometer of Asian economic growth" and investors may read MAS' move "as a sign of greater willingness" on the part of other central banks in the Asian emerging economies to allow the US dollar to further depreciate.

Reference #4 :-

As hot money and billionaires continue flight from USD, MAS throws doors open wider

As the larger trend of flight out of USD continues, the Singapore government decides to throw the doors wide open…nay, tear them off the hinges and break down the walls as well, in anticipation of having more hot money flow into the country. The media has made much of MAS’ intent to “combat inflation” by allowing the SGD to appreciate, but we think you ain’t seen inflation yet, if you think setting the expectations for a stronger SGD will actually help keep prices in our tiny little red dot stable. Anyone recall the USD100 billion flow into Singapore during the GFC? Where did you think that money went to? So, was this unexpected? No, because it just confirms that SG is prioritizing the “Monaco” model, and local business be damned. Good for St Regis property prices? Hell yes....

Link :- http://singaporeuncletrader.wordpress.com/2010/10/14/as-hot-money-and-billionaires-continue-flight-from-usd-mas-throws-doors-open-wider/

Reference #5 :-

TODAY Oct 15, 2010

by Colin Tan

How Chinese laws will affect Singapore

With Beijing acting to cool red-hot domestic market, sellers here could benefit from influx of Chinese buyers

Within days of Beijing announcing new measures to cool the overheated property market, thousands of people have been flocking to housing shows in big and small cities across China. Strong enthusiasm was seen in the property shows in Shenzhen, Shanghai and Nanning, though sales were lower compared with last year.

The Chinese authorities had ordered local banks to demand a downpayment of at least 30 per cent from all mortgage applicants and to suspend loans to buyers of third homes on Sept 29.

Following the move, Shanghai, one of the country's top-tier cities, issued new rules to limit home buyers to one new apartment and will impose a revised land appreciation tax soon.

While some analysts foresee a drop in prices in the coming months, property agents say initial signs suggest buyers are still not taking the measures seriously. Buyers react relatively calmly this time, compared with April when they disappeared in a flash.

Is this irrational behaviour or what?

'Noise' in the market

Economists have an explanation for this. Almost all of them agree that an excessively loose monetary policy - with interest rates kept low for too long invariably leads to asset inflation and this includes property.

At the micro level, individuals cannot comprehend this. It does not help that there is a lot of "noise" in the market. Instead they see rising asset prices - of houses, stocks, bonds - touted as a reflection of the real wealth being created......

Reference #6 :-

GOVMONITOR
Singapore Releases 3Q 2010 Public Housing Data


Latest Data and market updates for 3rd Q 2010.