The Property Bubble & Investment Trap Part XI - Currency war may fuel bubbles - Impact on Mid Range & Luxury Class Properties

Last week, I wrapped off the last leg of my posting on the mass market condo with a cautionary note on a likely "currency war" that could boost inflation and asset prices in emerging markets and thus fueling a property bubble which may burst and hurt the overall market generally.

What the Currency War Really Means?

I was surfing the web for news about the "currency war" to study implications when I hit upon this voice blog -"Gold, Currency War, ADP, Inflation, Jobs" - How Currency War Affects Stock Market and Economy. What the author said was interesting. He said in a "War" you are killing the "Enemy Forces", but in a "Currency War" you are actually killing your own "Friendly Forces". Hence as Govts and their Central Banks fight it out, it is the ordinary citizens within these countries who suffer. As a currency war wages out, it boosts inflation and asset prices. The US is pretending as if  there is no inflation, maintaining low interest rate and arguing for other nations to appreciate their currency so that they (US) would be competitive in exports to correct the trade imbalance. Gold and Silver hit their peaks. The Swiss and Aust  saw their currencies hitting 52 weeks high. Japanese Yen  hit its 15 year high ... inflation will go up in emerging countries as hot monies flow in to hunt down "affordable" properties, leading to asset inflation and perhaps general hyper-inflation later on when interest rate will just escalate.

And taking global markets by surprise, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) tightened its monetary policy last week - signaling its intent to combat inflation even as the Republic's economic growth slows.  The move, which allayed the fears of business owners and consumers about rising costs, sent the Singapore dollar soaring to a record high against the greenback - it also sent the US dollar tumbling against a wide range of currencies. The US dollar was at 1.2953 against the Singapore dollar and was being quoted at a record low of 1.2893 shortly after MAS' announcement. All must be waiting to hear what our PM will say  on the forthcoming G20 Meet about why Singapore is going against the trend of fighting currency appreciation for emerging countries.

Immediately after the MAS's announcement, banks pulled another stunner when SINBOR was lowered from 0.5 to 0.44 % the next day.

Very often in Singapore, our policies are just not simply mapped out and aligned to help out needy individuals by implementing  simple control measures. They are often swayed to be so called "sustainable" which is actually making them more "pocket-centric" for the Govt, either in terms of earning more revenue and /or to cut costs. If everyone upstream only care about their own pockets, what should property buyers at the downstream of the value chain do? Afterall, the Govt simply pushes out the land plots, and it is the developers who are pricing the units built for the buyers to take up, with "easy" money entering state coffer no matter it is "boom" or "bust" for the end-purchasers.

Meanwhile, MBT will let out more land supply and leave you to "fight it out" with the developers if you take it on now, and even with more FTs or hot foreign investors. I had illustrated my claim with a few analysis of recent land bids in earlier postings but it is not exclusively mentioned by me, but also by others (read this link). HK has just restricted giving PR to foreign investors but not Singapore. Singapore is letting them in and restricting them from leaving with the newly announced stricter measures as in the case of landed housing. For the price band from mass market condo to luxury class condo, they are still free to roam. Singapore's policies are seldom really consistent. They often get you caught-in-between. The only instance you see consistency is when the state thinks about making money and you are paying.

Too strong a SingDollar may still encourage more hot monies to flow in to speculate instead of checking it by making property a little more expensive notwithstanding the cooling measures. It is not bad a time to do some "positioning" in your strategy now by watching external economic drivers and doing some field recce of potential properties, but it is certainly not the time to buy yet. As MBT puts it in Parliament, since the measures "have been introduced less than two months ago, it is too early to assess their full impact". But we do know that developers only sold 911 private homes in Sep 2010, down from 1,259 in August, with the bulk of the sales due to heavy demand in one project, the NV Residences. Don't forget MBT has no obligations to help HDB owners upgrade to private properties. But he has obligations to make as much as possible for the Govt coffer from his land sales for DBSS, EC or mass market condo, which will spiral up the price of re-sale flats, and upon which his new BTO flat prices will be pegged.

Targeting the Market Segments

With more hot money likely to flow in as the currency war wages,  is it then time to buy ? Foreigners are unlikely to be buying and speculating on new DBSS and ECs, or even mass market condos - so why the hell are those EC buyers at the recent launches willing to pay so much when the price has not consolidated? The action is more likely to be shifted up the price spectrum on the mid-range and luxury class condo segments. Foreign buyers are more likely to target this part of the price spectrum for speculative investment with the Govt leaving it to market forces, while the GOVT and Developers target to make more money out of Singaporeans' pockets for the DBSS, EC and mass market condo segement, out of the land bidding and development process.

Market Forces - Buyers vs Sellers

Now, with SIBOR rates lowered, the Buyers have more time to mull over their purchases and put even more pressure on Sellers. The Sellers now have a bigger disadvantage than initially anticipated especially amongst those who were contemplating new upgrades with the current low rates – they will get desperate to sell to bank-roll their new investments. Speculators who have already purchased their new projects will sell quicker than those under no such pressure. The correction in housing prices will start with these under-pressure. Sellers who cave-in to consolidate their finances even if it means selling at a lower-than-offered price as long as they do not lose out. Savvy players have already started to make compromises in negotiating prices. This sudden turn-about has caught a lot of Sellers on the wrong foot. Those who have not realized it yet will yield to pressure later and these are the ones who end up bringing the market down.

The Buyers, with the help of the drop in rates, have more time (around a quarter) to mull over their purchases and put more pressure on the Sellers. The measures by MBT has effectively sifted out the small-time players and will hit the over-leveraged speculators. The Buyers now are the cash rich investors who are more likely to be savvy and experienced homeowners with real leverage on their side and now, time to mull and pressure. Amongst the Sellers will be those over-leveraged speculators who will come under pressure to consolidate their investments as their debts catch up with them.

Will Low Rates Last Forever?

But will the rates stay this low forever? We’re getting less than pittance on our savings. An argument in supporting why the MAS had tigthened policy was Singapore had slackened while the financially powerful nations around us like China and Australia have tightened their monetary policies, just as they continue to pursue a firm stand against speculation in containing the asset  bubbles. Ultimaltely, if we did not act, we would end up paying more for imported stuff because the value of our currency remains constant. But this monetary move will also prompts the banks to start raising their rates. While Singapore had surprising done the reverse, China announced a rate hike on 19 Oct 2010.

More significantly, prime rates will drive up and this is going to drive the property market later on. Expect a surge in buying as real buyers rush in to lock in the current low rates before the banks start hiking. This should send property prices up in a flurry. And as quickly as it starts, the buying will end. Real investrors  should wait for this to happen. When it does, prices will come down as the Bid/Ask spread inevitably changes direction. With so many properties in speculative Sellers’ hands, the onus will once again swing into the real Buyers’ hands and there will only be a few of them left to snap up the many choice units still left on a down-trending chart of housing prices. The higher prime rate will not bother those dealing with more real cash. Sellers in need of cash to bank-roll their next investment (which they will buy/have bought at a higher price) will be desperate to sell. The fact is that most Singaporeans and PRs eligible to buy homes are over-extended on credit (unlike in China) and will need to consolidate the assets within this opportunistic window. The current measures have limited their ability to weigh in on more credit and they will be forced to liquidate if they wish to continue their property binge or settle their debts – the banks will come calling for the next (huge) payment phase as many property projects come to fruition next year.

Re-cap on Affordability

The real issue about "affordability" is then "can we afford to spend the whole life working and paying for it". When inflation becomes hyper inflation and interest rates starts to hike constantly, that is the time to worry for most owner-occupiers, even if they stay employed. I like to re-cap what Mr Colin Tan said in one of his article in TODAY, "The key to investing in homes" - "When an owner-occupier mis-times his purchase, he spends his whole working life paying for it. When a fully-leveraged investor gets it wrong, like in the real estate board game Monopoly, he becomes a bankrupt and retires from the game."

Patience for the Buyers

New developments are not the way to go now as the resale market will start to look like better and safer bets. Patience is key for the savvy Buyer. Plus with the lower SIBOR rates in place now, the Buyers, have time on their side. If you are a Seller, the Buyer will not envy you. Timing is of the essence :-

•   Wait too long and get too greedy, and you will pay for that greed.

•   Sell too soon and the prices continue to rise and you will pay for that impatience.

It becomes a Buyer's Game, like in Reversi when a corner chip is placed as I mentioned before.

Specifics About the Mid-Range Condo Segment

I like to leave aside the monetary policies for now, unless some interesting events and statistics do crop up soon, to take a quick look at the evolving mid-range and luxury class condo segments. The luxury class is not worth the time for discussion here in this blog as it is a unique niche for the wealthy and I doubt any of these priviledged buyers would be even here to read this blog.

The "mid-range" condo still deserve a closer look to appreciate the mechanics of property investment,  although with escalating prices it is getting out-of-reach for most average purchasers. It used to be the "battleground" in the property market and comprised mainly the 999 Yr LH and FH condos in the prime suburban areas or "outside central region", or roughly the band from $850~$1,200 psf of the current price spectrum. I can divide them into 2 sub-bands - $850~$1,000 psf and $1,000~1,200 psf.

In the historic high of the 1996 Peak, these mid-range condos were released into the market at about $650~$800 psf and $$800 ~$950 psf respectively. So you see current prices has appreciated more or less by $200 psf. In fact what prompted MBT to implement control measures was almost every other private condo transacted just before was above $1,000 psf.

My focal points will be approaching it from 2 angles to round off :-

(a) that of "risky buying" vs "good investment value"

(b) summarising the overall pricing trends from 1996 ~ 2010 in relation to the PPPI and economic crisis.

When young, I was told by my granny simply what property investment was all about. "If you could not afford a property in Holland Road or Orchard Road, you have to look for one nearby 'Hwa Chong' in Bukit Timah".  In those days, it meant "landed" properties because nobody would have dreamt of living in a condominium with facilities. That was simply about LOCATION. In those days, flooding had nothing to do with "Acts of God" and if did not flood at  Bukit Timah then "The Gods Must Be Crazy". Today things get more complicated,  it means choosing something affordable from the properties scattered all over Singapore. The different paces of developments had carved them out quite distinctively to characterise some of these niches.

Affordability at one time meant simply buying outside the prime areas, at the suburban. Hence, we have the Bukit Timah Condo Belt which once defined the mid-range band of condo during the 2006 / 2007 Peak. Today, property value means "Location, Location, Location" and more "Locations" over Singapore ... it not only must be located nearby "Hwa Chong" but it should be next to a DTL 2 MRT station say TKK Station has a famous institution next to it. If not, it  must be say coming up near Upper Serangoon along the Circle Line and such mass market properties 99yr LH are now priced just as expensively as those near Bukit Timah used to be. This brings me to my point about "risky-buying" versus "good investment value" . I like to illustrate with the "en-bloc: redevelopment of Good Luck View or currently known as The Beverly at Toh Tuck Road which was launched at $750 psf.

I happened to be around that area recently and took a picture of the advertisment still posted near the entrance of the site, although the project is SOLD OUT. It says "price from $681 psf onwards". This must have been "an invitation to treat" in the legal context at the time of launch. The project was launched at $750 psf and re-sale price hit as high as $1,130 psf even though current progress is at the "substructure" stage.



View of the Beverly Site from its entrance, showflats had been demolished.

Without even progressing beyond the "substructure" stage, the price of these "invisible" units had shot up from $681 psf when the advertisment sign was put up, to $750 psf when first soft launched, and to about $1,200 psf in the secordary re-sale market when The Terene was launched nearby at about $1,200 psf. Check out this website [Link]. The Terene is nearer to the Beauty World MRT, about half the distance to the Beverly which is about 1.2km away.

Now, I like you to take a closer at the photo of the Beverly advertisment again and zero in on the asking price of $681 psf. Does this seems familiar to you? If you don't, you must re-visit my earlier posting on 28 Sep 2010, "The Property Bubble and Investment Trap Part IX - Land Bid for Punggol 99 Yr LH EC Condo Site", go to my advice on the whole consolidation of the market and re-banding of sale prices. If you note item (c) for the consolidated Price Banding predicted by me, I advised "(c) Mass Market Private 99 Yr LH Condo $680~$720 psf". I am no professor researching on the property market, but I had re-constructed from raw land bids results and news reports, and based on my own insight knowledge of construction costs to decipher and give you this indicative position of a possible consolidation in price of the overall property market. Now, you will appreciate why a mass market LH condo is only worth so much psf, and I had given a reasonable margin of $40 psf. $681 was supposed the launched price of The Beverly but it never did. It shot up by $70 psf on soft-launch and spiral to $1,200 psf for a FH property at a reasonably good suburban exclusive location. I doubt any Analyst or Agent would show you this true perspective, but I have shown you a true picture above.

The FH condo re-sale market prices for reasonably new condo (about 10 years+) in the vincinity of The Beverly are unlikely to go back to $681 psf. It is a reasonable starting price for a mass market LH condo as I said. Re-sales prices for FH condo in this area is about $850 ~ $950 psf. It is quite unlikely to fall below  below $830 psf again because it is pretty close to the Beauty World DTL 2 MRT Station.


This Beverly case illustrates the upside of property appreciation when a purchase is well-timed. Conversely, it also illustrates "risky-buying" which is common when foreign capital flows in and attracts speculators. But as a keen home-occupier you must always be walking in with "eyes-wide-open", this point it is alright for you to take cue from none other than MM Lee.

When prices has reached a level to test the next benchmark at $1,200 psf, you should play it safe by assessing your true affordability and understanding the true mechanics of the whole game play as I explained above and my previous postings.

Summarising the overall pricing trends from 1996 ~ 2010 for Various Property Classes

I could simply tagged various categories of property with obvious price fluctuations to the various crises although the general trend of the boom and bust cycles are always the same. The PPI for the various categories is illustrated here. (Link)

(a) 1996 Peak - private landed properties (Detached, Semi-D, Terraces was still the focus with FH suburban condo catching up the fray.

(b) 2000 Mini-boom - 99 Yr landed terraces and FH suburban condo prices climbed.

(c) 2006 Boom - Focus shifted to the Luxuary Class Condo ... like The Sail, One Shenton and also Sentosa Cove, with the 2 IR projects announced in Q1 2005.

(d) 2010 Boom - Focus shifts to EC and Mass Market Condo along NE, Circle Line and DTL 2 MRT Lines.

What is notable from the above trending ?

(a) Those who invested in FH condo at the 2006 Peak, when interest rate (mortgage) also peaked, saw their their property values depreciated or stagnant following the 2000 Mini-Boom till the 2008 boom and 2009 sudden bust. They were lucky that with the several crises that followed - Dot-com Bust, Sep 11, SARs - provided several opportunities to re-finance which was a blessing in disguise for those once locked in high and long mortgages.

(b) Current focus is totally in reverse ... EC and mass market climbed to ridiculous high prices while SIBOR reached its lowest at 0.44% just recently on 15 Oct 2010.

(c) In between the cycle booms and busts is a period of about 5 years with the property play always focussed more on a particular property class with intermittent supporting play of the HDB resale market in tandem as the upgrading class. Will the next boom then be in 2015? And will there be a severe correction or even burst of the bubble between 2012 ~ 2013? Now following the 2003 SARs crisis, the annoucement of the IRs then boosted property prices and boosted it to reach the 2008 Peak, with rising steel prices; while the China economy impressed to become the World's No 2. It is also a period that Singapore capitalised on cheap and abundant labour resources from China. Given the post Financial Tsunami scenario as equivalent, if not greater in impact to the SARs crisis; will the next severe correction or burst of our bubble then come with the burst of The China Bubble around 2012 ~2013?

Why watch the external drivers and external environment?

I had mentioned my last serial posting about external drivers to watch for further price correction. The reason is simple. On a negative note, when will our bubble burst? On a positive note where and what to target for property investment, even as an owner-occupier (having shown you the The Beverly case) :-

(a) If the external environment is causing further capital inflow into our property market, there will be much action in the mass market condo, and also the mid-range condo market. We may expect more property control measures just like those in China.

(b) If the external environment is not pushing capital inflow into our property market, we would expect actions to be more on the EC and probably mass market condo; with EC prices even boosted due to greater demands, as we note the Govt's interest to gain from high land sales bidding. You may have noted that I had mentioned that established developers are moving into land bids for EC to win "price-leadership" position even on JV. If demand is there, it makes no difference for established developers to be in the EC market or mass 99 Yr condo market; afterall it is end-purchasers who are actually financing the projects, if these projects are 30~40% about sold.

(c) If you look at the overall trending, say there is a boom again in 2015; it is good to buy a new EC now and time to sell then to PRs in say 3 years. But you will be taking over that property at a time when the market might burst (say in 2012~2013); so you may see the price to drop substantially then. But if you choose to buy other re-sale condo say in 2~3 years' time (new buyers now cannot sell in 2~3 years) when the bubble actually burst, you will be buying at an attractive price if there is a severe correction. The same applies for other categories if you buy new.

With this posting I have completed my own "internal" environmental scanning of the property market and hopefully what I have posted here is helpful for you and gave you an idea about the property investment game (or trap). I will soon move on to wider transnational context to look at the external business environment. I hope current visitors to my blog would also be keen to follow up further.


Reference #1 :-

Straits Times Online  Oct 16, 2010

Private home sales down

Cooling measures seem to have immediate impact, with 911 units sold last month PRIVATE home sales last month were down sharply from August, suggesting that the recent steps to cool the surging property market had immediate impact.

Developers sold 911 flats last month - down from 1,259 in August - and a substantial part of that was due to heavy demand for one project.

The level of launches was slightly lower, with 1,058 units released last month, from 1,165 in August, according to the Urban Redevelopment Authority yesterday.

While last month's figures were down, in comparison with the preceding months of mostly bumper transactions, they were still fairly robust and brought sales of new private homes for the first nine months to 12,136. This compares with 12,828 units shifted in the same period last year.

Developers sold 14,688 new homes in the whole of last year, just short of the 2007 record of 14,811 units.

The Aug 30 cooling measures introduced tighter lending rules for people with existing mortgages looking to buy another home, and barred owners who plan to buy a HDB resale flat from keeping their private property, including any held overseas.

Reference #2 :-

ST Online Oct 12, 2010

Currency war may fuel bubbles

http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/Money/Story/STIStory_589615.html

BEIJING - THE world faces risks of a currency war that could boost inflation and asset prices in emerging markets, an official Chinese newspaper said on Tuesday.

The China Securities Journal said in a front-page editorial that Beijing would have to control the pace of yuan appreciation and refrain from raising interest rates in order to ward off inflows of speculative capital......

'The financial crisis could escalate into a currency crisis,'the newspaper said. 'There will be no winner.' Efforts by the United States and Japan to weaken their currencies would lead to higher global commodity prices and fuel money flows into emerging markets, pushing up inflation as well as stock and property prices, it said......

Reference #3 :-

TODAY Oct 15, 2010

Monetary policy tightened

MAS signals its intent to combat inflation, even as economic growth slows

Taking global markets by surprise, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) tightened its monetary policy yesterday - signaling its intent to combat inflation even as the Republic's economic growth slows.

The move, which allayed the fears of business owners and consumers about rising costs, sent the Singapore dollar soaring to a record high against the greenback - it also sent the US dollar tumbling against a wide range of currencies.

The US dollar was at 1.2953 against the Singapore dollar and was being quoted at a record low of 1.2893 shortly after MAS' announcement.

While some experts worldwide expressed surprise at the global impact of MAS' move, a Barclays Capital report pointed out that Singapore was "seen as a barometer of Asian economic growth" and investors may read MAS' move "as a sign of greater willingness" on the part of other central banks in the Asian emerging economies to allow the US dollar to further depreciate.

Reference #4 :-

As hot money and billionaires continue flight from USD, MAS throws doors open wider

As the larger trend of flight out of USD continues, the Singapore government decides to throw the doors wide open…nay, tear them off the hinges and break down the walls as well, in anticipation of having more hot money flow into the country. The media has made much of MAS’ intent to “combat inflation” by allowing the SGD to appreciate, but we think you ain’t seen inflation yet, if you think setting the expectations for a stronger SGD will actually help keep prices in our tiny little red dot stable. Anyone recall the USD100 billion flow into Singapore during the GFC? Where did you think that money went to? So, was this unexpected? No, because it just confirms that SG is prioritizing the “Monaco” model, and local business be damned. Good for St Regis property prices? Hell yes....

Link :- http://singaporeuncletrader.wordpress.com/2010/10/14/as-hot-money-and-billionaires-continue-flight-from-usd-mas-throws-doors-open-wider/

Reference #5 :-

TODAY Oct 15, 2010

by Colin Tan

How Chinese laws will affect Singapore

With Beijing acting to cool red-hot domestic market, sellers here could benefit from influx of Chinese buyers

Within days of Beijing announcing new measures to cool the overheated property market, thousands of people have been flocking to housing shows in big and small cities across China. Strong enthusiasm was seen in the property shows in Shenzhen, Shanghai and Nanning, though sales were lower compared with last year.

The Chinese authorities had ordered local banks to demand a downpayment of at least 30 per cent from all mortgage applicants and to suspend loans to buyers of third homes on Sept 29.

Following the move, Shanghai, one of the country's top-tier cities, issued new rules to limit home buyers to one new apartment and will impose a revised land appreciation tax soon.

While some analysts foresee a drop in prices in the coming months, property agents say initial signs suggest buyers are still not taking the measures seriously. Buyers react relatively calmly this time, compared with April when they disappeared in a flash.

Is this irrational behaviour or what?

'Noise' in the market

Economists have an explanation for this. Almost all of them agree that an excessively loose monetary policy - with interest rates kept low for too long invariably leads to asset inflation and this includes property.

At the micro level, individuals cannot comprehend this. It does not help that there is a lot of "noise" in the market. Instead they see rising asset prices - of houses, stocks, bonds - touted as a reflection of the real wealth being created......

Reference #6 :-

GOVMONITOR
Singapore Releases 3Q 2010 Public Housing Data


Latest Data and market updates for 3rd Q 2010.