Monday, 9 May 2011

PAP soul searching: the writing is on the wall surely

PAP soul searching: the writing is on the wall surely [ SpotlightOnSingapore /Roger Poh ]

Thursday, 5 May 2011

Singapore General Election - News and Issues

Singaporeans spent hundred of thousands and millions of dollars in acquiring a property (HDB or Private) but are generally apathetic towards politics.

Are you following up enough on "POLITICS" in order to shape our own political destiny and to safeguard the value of your properties?

Read about political issues and news about the coming GENERAL ELECTION at the SINGAPORE GENERAL ELECTION PORTAL (SGEP).

Read Also :
(1) CNN International's : Alexis Ong : Singaporeans just don't give a damn.
What's going on with Singaporeans? What sort of incentive do we need to care about ourselves and the people around us?

(2) My Letter published in TODAY, VOICES December 03, 2009 : Who will play countercheck role?

(3) Project Engineer Alex Tan's take on : What led Singaporeans to Apathy?

線香花火 NSP (Japanese Group)

Enjoy this nice song by the Japanese Group - NSP. A special THANK YOU to all for their personal comments and OPINIONS expressed through this Blog for GE 2011. All comments made by this Blog and contributors for GE 2011 and any other topics are just OPINIONS.

Come 8 May 2011 ..... ?

Come 8 May 2011, will a more intelligent Electorate relinquish its hold on the steering wheel of the GRC System and let the "driver" takes you where he wants or will the passengers "slap" the driver who refuses to take a "co-driver" when the road ahead looks more enduring, if not treacherous?

Will homes in Hougang and Aljunied GRC get cheaper and even more affordable or will high home prices all over Singapore suddenly become "affordable" overnight for all Singaporean voters to swallow, ruminate and regret for another 5 more years?

Come 7 May 2011 Election Day
Don't forget, how the hand of the "election" cards will play out depends on you too, as a member of the Electorate; and you can make it happen.

Vote for Change

Guest speaker Prof Paul Tambyah at the SDP lunchtime rally, 5 May

Minister Mah had not address Profits for BTO Flats and the "Ballooning" Land Costs

Minister Mah had announced that income ceiling for BTO flats may be raised to S$10,000, from S$8,000. I supposed that is, if he is voted in by Tampines GRC voters. All along, he had insisted that HDB flats are affordable. However, he has not reveal how much profits the HDB is making from selling these BTO flats.

My earlier posting on 21 April 2011, "An illegal raid on the reserves? Mr Mah Should Explain About Ballooning Land Costs", had traced the historical cost of a plot of land at the then "Clementi New Town" when the HDB acquired it in mid 1975.

On 3 May 2011, someone had provided the estimated selling prices of New SER Flats at Clementi Ave 3, here. I asked for someone to do a simple calculation to advise me what sort of profits HDB is making. There was no response, so I will do a calculation here.

Projection of Estimated Costs & Profits for BTO Flats at Clementi Ave 3

(1) 5 Rm @ 110 m2 or about 1,184 sq. ft.

Historical land costs = S$0.49 psf GFA x 1,184 = S$580.16
Present land costs, say 30 times above land costs = $580.16 x 30 = S$17,404.80
Present construction costs @ S$150 psf GFA x 1,184 = S$177,600.
Total Projected Costs = S$17,404.80 + $177,600.00 = S$195,005.

Based on the Estimated Selling Price Range ( $574,000 ~ $681,000 ),
Profit Range = ( $378,995 ~ $485,995 ) or (66% ~ 71%)

Say we allow a higher construction costs @ S$200 psf GFA x 1,184 = S$236,800.
Total Projected Costs = S$17,404.80 + $236,800 = S$254,205.
Based on the Estimated Selling Price Range ( $574,000 ~ $681,000 ),
Profit Range = ( $319,795 ~ $426,795) or (55% ~ 62%)

Or at 20% Discount of Estimated Selling Price

@ construction costs of S$150 psf GFA   [Total : S$195,005 ]
Based on the Estimated Selling Price Range ( $544,000 ~ $651,000 ),
Profit Range = ( $348,995 ~ $455,995 ) or (64% ~ 70%)

@ construction costs of S$200 psf GFA   [Total : S$254,205]
Based on the Estimated Selling Price Range ( $544,000 ~ $651,000 ),
Profit Range = ( $289,795 ~ $396,795) or (53% ~ 60.9%)

(2) 4 Rm @ 92 m2 or about 990 sq. ft.

Historical land costs = S$0.49 psf GFA x 990 = S$485.10
Present land costs, say 30 times above land costs = $485.10 x 30 = S$14,553.
Present construction costs @ S$150 psf GFA x 990 = S$148,500.
Total Projected Costs = S$14,553 + $148,500 = S$163,053.

Based on the Estimated Selling Price Range ( $468,000 ~ $548,000 ),
Profit Range = ( $304,947 ~ $384,947 ) or (65% ~ 70%)

Say we allow a higher construction costs @ S$200 psf GFA x 990 = S$198,000.
Total Projected Costs = S$14,553 + $198,000 = S$212,553.
Based on the Estimated Selling Price Range ( $468,000 ~ $548,000 ),
Profit Range = ( $255,447 ~ $335,447) or (54% ~ 61%)

Or at 20% Discount of Estimated Selling Price

@ construction costs of S$150 psf GFA    [Total = S$163,053]
Based on the Estimated Selling Price Range ( $438,000 ~ $518,000 ),
Profit Range = ( $274,947 ~ $354,947 ) or (62% ~ 68%)

@ construction costs of S$200 psf GFA   [Total = S$212,553]
Based on the Estimated Selling Price Range ( $438,000 ~ $518,000 ),
Profit Range = ( $225,447 ~ $305,447) or (51% ~ 58.9%)

Hence, for a 5-Rm at Clementi SER Flat,

(a) Without discount, estimated profit made is about 66~71% at construction costs of $150 psf GFA and 30 times historical land cost.

(b) Without discount, estimated profit made is about 55~62% at construction costs of $200 psf GFA and 30 times historical land cost.

(c) With 20% discount, estimated profit made is about 64~70% at construction costs of $150 psf GFA and 30 times historical land cost.

(d) With 20% discount, estimated profit made is about 53~60.9% at construction costs of $200 psf GFA and 30 times historical land cost.

Hence, for a 4-Rm at Clementi SER Flat,

(a) Without discount, estimated profit made is about 65~70% at construction costs of $150 psf GFA and 30 times historical land cost.

(b) Without discount, estimated profit made is about 54~61% at construction costs of $200 psf GFA and 30 times historical land cost.

(c) With 20% discount, estimated profit made is about 62~68% at construction costs of $150 psf GFA and 30 times historical land cost.

(d) With 20% discount, estimated profit made is about 51~58.9% at construction costs of $200 psf GFA and 30 times historical land cost.

As it is unlikely to incur a $200 psf GFA construction cost unless when steel price is high, it means for every 4-RM or 5-RM you purchase at Clementi Ave 3 SER, you will be giving away 1 to 2 similar HDB units to HDB depending on the percentage of discount.

This is just like COE for cars, for every car you buy, you are giving 2 cars to the LTA.

Hence, it is material for Minister Mah to address the actual construction cost and "ballooning" land cost, and not just simply avoiding the issue by pushing up the monthly income ceiling cap from S$8,000 to S$10,000, and saying it's "not cause for concern unless it isn't affordable". By assuming and taking "affordability" through stetching the mortgage over 20 to 30 years just does not make sense in the current context of wage stagnation and volatile employment market conditions.

Reference#01
TODAY May 05, 2011

Mah Bow Tan on housing

"The highest price for a five-room flat in April's BTO launches was S$484,000. Will the price of BTO flats reach half a million dollars and more in future?

Mah Bow Tan: Depends on the location. If you're building one in Queenstown and in the central area, where land is more expensive, because HDB has to buy the land, it's possible. I think Singaporeans would appreciate that it's not just absolute cost alone but value for money ... If the value of a comparable private flat is higher, then it may happen. But that's not cause for concern unless it isn't affordable ... If you look at the sums ... somebody earning S$8,000 to S$9,000 will be able to afford that." .....

Reference#02

TODAY May 05, 2011

How Minister Mah will manage the affordability of BTO flats ...

"If the income ceiling for Build-To-Order (BTO) flats is raised, National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan will be watching closely one set of figures: The average incomes of applicants for each flat type.

Based on those numbers, he will price the flats within a range they can afford. And in the long term, it will be a price range equivalent to a monthly mortgage within one-third of household income.

That is how he will manage affordability for the future, Mr Mah told Today in a one-to-one interview, two days after the surprise announcement that the income ceiling for BTO flats may be raised to S$10,000, from S$8,000." .....

A Tribute To The Opposition

Vote for team that can serve best, says Teo

Vote for team that can serve best, says Teo [Straits Times]

But imagine this under PAP's First World Government.....Click the link below for full view.

Reference #01
Singapore will be represented at UN human rights review for the first time
http://app.mfa.gov.sg/2006/press/view_press.asp?post_id=6964

03/05/2011

MFA Press Statement: Singapore’s Participation in the 11th Session of the Universal Periodic Review Working Group, UN Human Rights Council in Geneva, Switzerland, 6 May 2011

Mr Ong Keng Yong, Ambassador-at-Large in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, will lead an inter-agency delegation to represent Singapore at the 11th Session of the Universal Periodic Review (UPR) Working Group in Geneva, Switzerland, on 6 May 2011. The UPR is a mandatory process which subjects all UN member States to a review of their human rights situation before the Human Rights Council.

This will be Singapore's first UPR. During the Working Group Session on 6 May, Ambassador Ong will present Singapore's National Report and the Singapore delegation will engage in a 3-hour long interactive dialogue with UN member states of which 47 are members of the HRC and the rest are observers. Singapore welcomes the UPR process as an opportunity to exchange views with our citizens, civil society organisations and fellow UN member States on our achievements and challenges in the area of human rights.

DE LEVIATHAN @ SG

Monday, 9 May 2011