tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6086009245893165129.post3619214044275418420..comments2023-08-29T21:37:25.207+08:00Comments on DE LEVIATHAN @ SG: The Property Bubble & Investment Trap Part VII - Land Bid Analysis for Yishun 99 Yr LH Condo SiteC H Yakhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03195578024282791294noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6086009245893165129.post-16244232551012418692010-12-14T02:54:24.484+08:002010-12-14T02:54:24.484+08:00Hi Yak,
Looking forward to your post on China. Bt...Hi Yak,<br /><br />Looking forward to your post on China. Btw, and you probably already realized this of course, it seems interesting that the property cycle in US, China, and Singapore, are in slightly different stages. US is still recovering, China might be on the verge about to go downhill, while Singapore is still happily marching up. <br /><br />I think the China property market is not as transparent as SG's. Information such as past transaction prices (similar to propertyguru style, or zillow) is certainly much harder to find! (I can't find any yet).<br /><br />YS.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6086009245893165129.post-50122327675039223442010-12-13T17:57:13.281+08:002010-12-13T17:57:13.281+08:00Hi YS
A complex topic. Not 2 properties can be ev...Hi YS<br /><br />A complex topic. Not 2 properties can be evaluated on an apple-to-apple basis. Same with 2 countries with differnt socio-economic background and cultures. Even a mainlander may not be able to answer you completely.<br /><br />Without going into great details, I will be putting up a post on the China Bubble. I may comment on certain points you made. Ican see certain similarities and I like to interpret what is different in the context of US & Japan market.<br /><br />Main objective is to see the risks the China Bubble is posing for us here. Not to present the mechanics of investing there although I am understanding more of it now. The majority of the readers may not be keen or appreciate from the wider context of the external business environment. Some average purchasers don't even understand ours.C H Yakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03195578024282791294noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6086009245893165129.post-77732469520219700592010-12-12T02:11:27.105+08:002010-12-12T02:11:27.105+08:00Yak, so to summarize your comments, I think what y...Yak, so to summarize your comments, I think what you're saying is that Singaporeans are more risk-taking, perhaps taking on more mortgage than they should. And this feeds back into the cycle. <br /><br />Regarding what you're saying on China mainlanders buying in cash and holding a few units, while singaporeans take up heavy mortgages and do 1-for-1 swap upgrades... why would China mainlanders be able to do this (e.g. buy in cash)?<br /><br />As you seem to have your yearly retreat at Nanjing, let's talk about this place. I remember a few years ago, one could buy a mass-market condo unit in the northern part of Nanjing at around 600-700K RMB. To put things in perspective, I reckon the salary of a fresh grad to be around 3K RMB per month. If you picture in terms of SGD, the condo unit costs vs salary seems to be similar to Singapore here (a few years ago). So I don't think most mainlanders would be able to buy in cash.<br /><br />That said, there's something that I can think of. Up till some years back, for some jobs in China (e.g. if you're working as a Govt official); they actually assign a house to you, and you could purchase this house at a very low price if you wish. Most would take up this offer. Fast forward perhaps 10-20 years until present and you'll find that these houses are often near the inner city-area of Nanjing, e.g. near fu-zi-miao. So you enjoy lots of capital appreciation and you could sell them, and then buy a new home with cash.<br /><br />The current situation in Nanjing now, in my opinion, is even more terrible than in Singapore (in terms of the condo unit price to salary ratio). <br /><br />YS.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6086009245893165129.post-56523441498135816812010-12-11T09:49:10.094+08:002010-12-11T09:49:10.094+08:00YS
The root causes in my own opinion :-
(a) China...YS<br /><br />The root causes in my own opinion :-<br />(a) China D&B developers join in with high execssive bids.<br />(b) Most developers bid ahead to build but Just-In-time to clear developemnt plans. Only estab ones have small land banks. But for 99 yr few will dare hold land bank, so matter lies with Supply released by Govt.<br />(c) Costs finally forced on buyers - Singaporeans in a way, not a thinking lot when compared to China Mainlanders. Here long mortgage ... there they buy in "cash"...speculation there is buy a few units and hold for appreciation. S'pore buy with long mortgage and hope for appreciation while paying interest. So once bought, they expect Govt to help push up property value, esp private ones. PAP capitalise on this weakness for both HDB & Pte Properties.<br /><br />In a total collapse we are closer to US's sub-prime bust. ADB said banks here > 50% loans stuck with properties (I am verifying). China like what Jim Roger's take - pty mkt would burst but economy will survive. I tend to agree. They can throw away 2nd and 3rd property but at least keep 1 even if highly leveraged. S'poreans trying 1-to-1 swap to upgrade will be caught with "no pants" not empty pockets. Many cannot visualise ... buy within means.C H Yakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03195578024282791294noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6086009245893165129.post-59792904237885431122010-12-11T08:31:24.540+08:002010-12-11T08:31:24.540+08:00The reports we're reading in the newspapers ar...The reports we're reading in the newspapers are that, since units are snapped up so fast during property launches, developers need to replenish their land banks and hence they bid aggressively to secure the land.<br /><br />Not sure whose fault is this.. Govt for always taking the highest bid? Buyers who still snap up properties despite high prices, thus making developers greedy for more profits, and subsequently bidding aggressively for land?<br /><br />YS.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6086009245893165129.post-62321677723351375472010-09-17T02:03:35.496+08:002010-09-17T02:03:35.496+08:00Much thanks for your diligent research and your &q...Much thanks for your diligent research and your "stepping up to the podium" to educate the home-buyer.Mrs Dhttp://www.english-enrichment.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6086009245893165129.post-63635013865640545412010-09-16T00:12:51.437+08:002010-09-16T00:12:51.437+08:00Love your posting. Very well argued and informativ...Love your posting. Very well argued and informative. Wish more are like you and logical in their property investments. Keep more postings coming.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com